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Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Konjunktur windet sich aus der Stagnation
[German Economy in Autumn 2023: German Economy gradually overcomes stagnation]

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hoffmann, Timo
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Sonnenberg, Nils
  • Stamer, Vincent

Abstract

Die Aussichten für die deutsche Wirtschaft haben sich eingetrübt. Obwohl temporäre Belastungsfaktoren wie der hohe Krankenstand und die Lieferengpässe nachgelassen haben, ist das Bruttoinlandsprodukt noch nicht wieder auf einen Expansionskurs eingeschwenkt. Unternehmensbefragungen sprechen dafür, dass die wirtschaftliche Dynamik auch in der zweiten Jahreshälfte schwach bleiben wird. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 0,5 Prozent sinken (Sommerprognose: -0,3 Prozent). Im Jahr 2024 wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion voraussichtlich wieder anziehen. Die kräftigen Reallohnzuwächse werden die Aktivität in den konsumnahen Branchen anregen. Angesichts der hohen Auftragsbestände wird auch die Industrie ihre Produktion wieder etwas hochfahren können, auch wenn von weltwirtschaftlicher Seite vorerst keine größeren Impulse zu erwarten sind. Negativ wird dagegen die Misere in der Bauwirtschaft zu Buche schlagen. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 1,3 Prozent steigen (Sommerprognose: 1,8 Prozent). Für das Jahr 2025 rechnen wir mit einer Zuwachsrate von 1,5 Prozent. Gegen Ende des Prognosezeitraums dürften sich die Zuwachsraten dann jedoch bereits den mittelfristig für die deutsche Wirtschaft zu erwarteten niedrigen Wachstumsraten annähern. Die Inflation wird deutlich zurückgehen, weil sich der allgemeine Preisauftrieb abschwächt und die Energiepreise zumindest wieder etwas sinken werden. Nach 6 Prozent in diesem Jahr, wird die Inflation in den kommenden beiden Jahren wohl bei etwa 2 Prozent liegen. Die derzeitige wirtschaftliche Schwächephase wird am Arbeitsmarkt nur wenig Spuren hinterlassen, da der Fachkräftemangel weiterhin groß ist. Aufgrund des demografischen Wandels wird die Erwerbstätigkeit in den kommenden beiden Jahren wohl nicht mehr steigen. Das Budgetdefizit des Staates dürfte trotz der wirtschaftlichen Belebung nur wenig zurückgehen - von 2,6 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr auf 1,9 Prozent im Jahr 2025. Der Schuldenstand wird in den Jahren von 2023 bis 2025 wohl jeweils etwa bei 64 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt liegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2023: Konjunktur windet sich aus der Stagnation [German Economy in Autumn 2023: German Economy gradually overcomes stagnation]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 107, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:279694
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    References listed on IDEAS

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