IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkkb/13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2015 - Weltkonjunktur nur allmählich mit höherer Dynamik
[World Economy Winter 2015 - Stubborn weakness in the world economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft expandierte im Jahr 2015 verlangsamt. Sie wird sich in den kommenden beiden Jahren zwar allmählich beleben, aber vorerst nur wenig Schwung entwickeln. Der Anstieg der Weltproduktion gerechnet auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten wird sich von 3,1 Prozent in diesem Jahr auf 3,4 Prozent bzw. 3,8 Prozent in den Jahren 2016 und 2017 erhöhen. Damit haben wir unsere Prognose vom September für 2015 und 2016 um jeweils rund einen Viertel Prozentpunkt gesenkt, während wir die Zuwachsrate für 2017 leicht angehoben haben. Der Aufschwung in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften wird sich in leicht verstärktem Tempo fortsetzen. Eine insgesamt weiter expansive Geldpolitik, allmählich anziehende Löhne und (zunächst noch) Anregungen vonseiten des Ölpreises fallen angesichts fortschreitender Entschuldungsprozesse im privaten Sektor zunehmend auf fruchtbaren Boden. Die Expansion in den Schwellenländern wird vorerst weiter durch niedrige Rohstoffpreise und strukturelle Probleme gedämpft, die Konjunktur in dieser Ländergruppe dürfte sich im Prognosezeitraum gleichwohl allmählich beleben.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2015 - Weltkonjunktur nur allmählich mit höherer Dynamik [World Economy Winter 2015 - Stubborn weakness in the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/209425/1/kkb_13_2015-q4_welt.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus-Jürgen Gern & Philipp Hauber, 2015. "Konjunktur in China: Quo vadis?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 95(8), pages 575-576, August.
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Zur Wirkung des Ölpreisrückgangs auf die Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2015.1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Schwäche in den Schwellenländern bremst Weltkonjunktur [Weakness in emerging markets weighs on global growth]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Klaus-Jürgen Gern & Stefan Kooths & Ulrich Stolzenburg, 2015. "Wirtschaftliche Folgen von Terroranschlägen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 95(12), pages 871-872, December.
    5. Plödt, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Zur Wirkung des Ölpreisrückgangs auf den deutschen Außenhandel," Kiel Insight 2015.6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Ghosh,Swati R. & Kibuuka,Katie & Farazi,Subika, 2015. "Global liquidity and external bond issuance in emerging markets and developing economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7363, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Wolters, Maik H., 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2016 - Getrübte Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur [World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Wolters, Maik H., 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2016 - Getrübte Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur [World Economy Spring 2016 - Clouded outlook for the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "Zu den Ursachen der jüngsten Ölpreisentwicklungen," Kiel Insight 2016.1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Kohler, Karsten, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 270-283.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2015. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Herbst 2015 - Moderate Erholung im Euroraum [Euro Area Economy Autumn 2015 - Euro Area: Moderate Recovery proceeds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2008, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. De Gregorio, José & Jara, Mauricio, 2024. "The boom of corporate debt in emerging markets: Carry trade or save to invest?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Bacchetta, Philippe & Cordonier, Rachel & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2023. "The rise in foreign currency bonds: The role of US monetary policy and capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Ramon Moreno & José María Serena Garralda, 2018. "Firms' credit risk and the onshore transmission of the global financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 712, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Ge, Futing & Zhang, Weiguo, 2022. "The determinants of cross-border bond risk premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Investor Redemptions and Fund Manager Sales of Emerging Market Bonds: How Are They Related? [Borrow cheap, buy high? The determinants of leverage and pricing in buyouts]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 207-241.
    11. Kun Tracy Wang & Nathan Zhenghang Zhu, 2023. "Conditional Mandates on Management Earnings Forecasts: The Impact on the Cost of Debt," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(4), pages 901-953, December.
    12. Alberto Fuertes & Jose Maria Serena, 2016. "Insights from matched firm-bond level data: market of issuance and credit quality," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik überschreitet ihren Höhepunkt [World economic momentum peaks]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Tomas Williams & Sergio Schmukler & Mauricio Larrain & Charles Calomiris, 2019. "Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses," Working Papers 2019-15, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    15. Cheng, Jiameng & Dai, Yanke, 2020. "Is bitcoin a channel of capital inflow? Evidence from carry trade activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 261-278.
    16. Eduardo Borensztein & Lei Sandy Ye, 2021. "Corporate debt overhang and investment in emerging economies: Firm‐level evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 18-39, April.
    17. Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2017. "Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-22, February.
    18. Chris Garbers & Guangling Liu, 2017. "Flow specific capital controls for emerging markets," Working Papers 12/2017, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    19. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    20. Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "Zur Wirkung von Ölpreisänderungen auf die deutsche Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2016.8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.