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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence

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  • Laurence Savoie-Chabot
  • Mikael Khan

Abstract

In an open economy such as Canada’s, exchange rate movements can have a material impact on consumer prices. This is particularly important in the current context, with the significant depreciation of the Canadian dollar vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar since late 2012. This paper provides a broad overview of the various mechanisms by which exchange rate movements pass through to consumer prices and discusses the implications of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for the conduct of monetary policy. It then describes some of the tools used at the Bank of Canada to help quantify ERPT. We conclude by taking a closer look at the current situation in Canada, presenting a range of evidence that suggests ERPT has played an important role in recent inflation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Savoie-Chabot & Mikael Khan, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers 15-9, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:15-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. José Dorich & Michael K. Johnston & Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison & Yang Zhang, 2013. "ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 100, Bank of Canada.
    2. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vugar Rahimov & Nigar Jafarova & Fuad Ganbarov, 2017. "The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to CPI and its components in Oil-Exporting CIS Countries," IHEID Working Papers 06-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Zhe Chen & Michael B. Devereux & Beverly Lapham, 2017. "The Canadian border and the US dollar: The impact of exchange rate changes on US retailers," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1525-1555, December.
    4. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami, 2020. "Revisiting the West African Commonwealth Countries’ Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(1), pages 70-77, March.
    5. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    6. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami & Sallahuddin Hassan & Mohamad Helmi Bin Hidthiir, 2020. "Assessing the Asymmetry of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in West African Commonwealth Countries," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(1), pages 93-109, March.
    7. Stella Mnoyan, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Armenia," Working Papers 13, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, revised Dec 2019.
    8. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    9. Fan, Jiaping & Anders, Sven & Qiu, Feng, 2022. "Vertical Price Transmission in the Canadian Beef Industry: Does the Canada-US Exchange Rate Matter?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 23(1), June.
    10. Linderoth, Gabriella & Meuller, Malte, 2024. "Inflation-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sweden: Insights from a Logistic Smooth Transition VAR Model," Working Paper Series 439, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    11. Diby François Kassi & Dilesha Nawadali Rathnayake & Akadje Jean Roland Edjoukou & Yobouet Thierry Gnangoin & Pierre Axel Louembe & Ning Ding & Gang Sun, 2019. "Asymmetry in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: New Perspective from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, January.
    12. Mikael Khan & Louis Morel & Patrick Sabourin, 2015. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation for Canada," Discussion Papers 15-12, Bank of Canada.
    13. ?lyas ??klar & Merve Kocaman & Sevcan Kapkara, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: The Turkish Case (2002-2014)," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 202-211, December.
    14. Vietha Devia S.S., 2019. "The Correlation of Exchange Rate and Inflation and Its Effect on Stock Markets. Case Study on Consumer Good Index Indonesia: 2004 – 2017," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(2), pages 32-44, June.
    15. Paul Corrigan & Hélène Desgagnés & José Dorich & Vadym Lepetyuk & Wataru Miyamoto & Yang Zhang, 2021. "ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis," Technical Reports 119, Bank of Canada.
    16. Ugwu Ephraim & Amassoma Ditimi & Ehinomen Christopher, 2021. "Investigating Exchange Rate Pass-through to Consumer Prices in Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(1), pages 105-121, June.
    17. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.
    18. Younus, Rijja Ali & Yucel, Eray, 2020. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 98955, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Inflation and prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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