IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v2y2022i6d10.1007_s43546-022-00216-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The exchange rate passthrough to consumer price inflation in South Africa: has the inflation target band induced a structural change in the size of passthrough?

Author

Listed:
  • Eliphas Ndou

    (University of the South Africa)

Abstract

The South African Reserve Bank adopted a flexible inflation-targeting framework in February 2000 and has maintained an official inflation target band of 3–6% from inception. The effect of the target band on the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to headline consumer price inflation in South Africa has not been empirically evaluated. Hence, this study estimates the size of the ERPT coefficient when inflation is within the official 3–6% inflation target band and compare it to when inflation is above the 6% threshold. Evidence from the regime-dependent VAR models reveals that over all the horizons in the sample period, the size of the ERPT is halved when inflation is within the 3–6% band compared to when inflation exceeds the 6% threshold. In addition, the size of the ERPT is nearly three times lower when inflation is within the 3–6 target band compared to when there are no inflation bands imposed in the model. The results indicate that the adoption of the current inflation target band induced a structural change and lowered the size of the ERPT coefficient. The diminished size of the ERPT must be factored into the projection of inflation forecasts and the policy rate path. In addition, the incorporation of the reduced ERPT in the forecasting model will reduce the overprediction of inflationary pressures, thereby improving the credibility of monetary policymaking process.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "The exchange rate passthrough to consumer price inflation in South Africa: has the inflation target band induced a structural change in the size of passthrough?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-32, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:2:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00216-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-022-00216-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-022-00216-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-022-00216-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lian An & Jian Wang, 2012. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on Vector Autoregression with Sign Restrictions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 359-380, April.
    2. Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and institutional quality matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    4. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    5. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    6. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Elke Hahn & Marcelo Sánchez, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 84-102, November.
    8. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    9. Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata & Mthokozisi Mncedisi Tshuma, 2019. "Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-13932-2, April.
    10. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    11. Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in South Africa," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-46702-3, April.
    12. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    13. Mr. Marco Rossi & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2002/204, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Aleem, Abdul & Lahiani, Amine, 2014. "Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-29.
    15. SASAKI Yuri & YOSHIDA Yushi & Piotr Kansho OTSUBO, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price, and core CPI," Discussion papers 19078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    17. Takhtamanova, Yelena F., 2010. "Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1118-1130, December.
    18. Bhavish SHARMA, 2020. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 275-288, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heni Boubaker & Ben Saad Zorgati Mouna, 2024. "Transmission of Inflation and Exchange Rate Effects: The Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Methodology," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Boubaker, Sabri, 2023. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodriguez, Gabriel & Castillo B., Paul & Calero, Roberto & Salcedo Cisneros, Rodrigo & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2024. "Evolution of the exchange rate pass-through into prices in Peru: An empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Javed Ahmad Bhat & Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Waseem Ahmad Parray, 2025. "Nonlinearity in exchange rate pass-through across BRICS: Role of business cycle and inflation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-32, February.
    3. García-Cicco, Javier & García-Schmidt, Mariana, 2020. "Revisiting the exchange rate pass through: A general equilibrium perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
    5. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    6. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Omer Fazil Emek & Faruk Dusunceli & Omer Doru, 2021. "Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect on Domestic Producer and Consumer Prices in Turkey," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 163-190, June.
    8. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 53209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    10. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    12. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss & Nicolas E. Magud & Fabián Valencia, 2021. "Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 61-94, September.
    13. Cuitiño, María Fernanda & Medina, Juan Pablo & Zacheo, Laura, 2022. "Conditional exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy credibility: Insights from Uruguay and Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Danilo Leiva-Leon & Jaime Martinez-Martin & Eva Ortega, 2022. "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Co-movement in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 239-275, March.
    15. Jiang, Jiadan & Kim, David, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 900-912.
    16. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    17. Gayaker, Savas & Ağaslan, Erkan & Alkan, Buket & Çiçek, Serkan, 2021. "The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 571-587.
    18. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.
    19. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
    20. Konopczak, Karolina, 2019. "Can inaction account for the incomplete exchangerate pass-through? Evidence from threshold ARDL model," MF Working Papers 37, Ministry of Finance in Poland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Passthrough; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:2:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00216-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.