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Exchange rates and global imbalances: the importance of asset valuation effects and interest rate changes

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  • Oberpriller, Christian M.

Abstract

this paper analyzes two effects which might have an important impact on a reduction of global external imbalances. These are valuation effects on the one hand and interest rate effects on the other hand. We use a four-region model that is based on the models by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) and Oberpriller (2007) to analyze the difference in the occurring exchange rate changes with and without valuation and interest rate effects under two different scenarios of narrowing global imbalances. The outcome is a reduced need for real dollar depreciation because the United States will largely benefit from valuation gains on their foreign assets while the effect that stems from interest rate changes works in the opposite direction but is not as strong as the valuation effect. The magnitude of valuation and interest rate effects reduce the need for real exchange rate depreciation by two to four percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Exchange rates and global imbalances: the importance of asset valuation effects and interest rate changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michele Cavallo & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," Staff Reports 237, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    3. Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(01), pages 08-15, April.
    4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    5. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2006. "Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment: BW II dynamics," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 293-302, December.
    7. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July.
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    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; exchange rates; valuation effects; global imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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