IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/udt/wpbsdt/globalimbal.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global imbalances or bad accounting? The missing dark matter in the wealth of nations

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger

Abstract

This paper argues that current account statistics may provide a poor indication for the real evolution of a country’s net foreign assets. The differences may arise due to mismeasurement of FDI, as well as from unreported trade of insurance or liquidity services across countries. We suggest estimating net foreign assets by capitalizing the service flow and estimating the current account from the changes in this stock of foreign assets. We call dark matter the difference between our measure of net foreign assets and that portrayed by official statistics. When apply our estimation to a large set of countries. In particular we find that the US has run no current account deficits over the last two decades, and that global imbalances are relatively small and very stable. The exports of dark matter of the US appear to be fairly steady, casting doubts on the need for a major rebalancing of the global economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Global imbalances or bad accounting? The missing dark matter in the wealth of nations," Business School Working Papers globalimbal, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:globalimbal
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.utdt.edu/download.php?fname=_115331284270115200.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klingen, Christoph & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000," CEPR Discussion Papers 4374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
    4. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    9. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 715-741.
    10. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2005. "The income implications of rising U.S. international liabilities," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Dec).
    11. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 3-43, January.
    12. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    13. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    14. Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our marbles in the new century?: the great rebalancing in historical perspective," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    15. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
    17. Peter Kugler & Beatrice Weder, 2004. "International Portfolio Holdings and Swiss Franc Asset Returns," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(III), pages 301-325, September.
    18. Richard N. Cooper, 2005. "Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View," Policy Briefs PB05-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    19. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1990. "U.S. Current Account Adjustment: An Appraisal," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 343-392.
    21. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    22. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, December.
    23. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2004. "Fixed Costs and FDI: The Conflicting Effects of Productivity Shocks," NBER Working Papers 10864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Richard H. Clarida, 2007. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar06-2.
    25. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Ms. Beatrice Weder & Mr. Christoph A Klingen, 2004. "How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000," IMF Working Papers 2004/013, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Kugler, Peter & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2005. "Why Are Returns on Swiss Franc Assets So Low? Rare Events May Solve the Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Giavazzi, Francesco & Blanchard, Olivier & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Ralph Kozlow, 2002. "Valuing the Direct Investment Position in U.S. Economic Accounts," BEA Papers 0025, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    29. John Kitchen, 2007. "Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the US Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 1036-1061, November.
    30. Barbara M. Fraumeni & Sumiye Okubo, 2001. "Alternative Treatments of Consumer Durables in the National Accounts," BEA Papers 0016, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    31. Dennis J Fixler & Marshall B Reinsdorf & Shaunda Villones, 2010. "Measuring the services of commercial banks in the NIPA," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 346-349, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Peter Kugler & Beatrice Weder, 2004. "International Portfolio Holdings and Swiss Franc Asset Returns," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(III), pages 301-325, September.
    34. Eichengreen, Barry, 2006. "Global imbalances: The new economy, the dark matter, the savvy investor, and the standard analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 645-652, September.
    35. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    2. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2006. "Chapter 2: Global Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 50-67, March.
    3. Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa & Turhan, M. İbrahim, 2015. "Global imbalances, current account rebalancing and exchange rate adjustments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-341.
    4. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    5. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    6. Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our marbles in the new century?: the great rebalancing in historical perspective," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    7. Sobański Konrad, 2019. "‘Dark matter’ in the external sector of the United States," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 86-108, June.
    8. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Why the US Current Account Deficit is Sustainable," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 223-240, August.
    9. Michele Cavallo & Cedric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," 2006 Meeting Papers 252, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-199, June.
    11. Mileva, Mariya, 2015. "Valuation effects and long-run real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 390-408.
    12. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "On the solvency of nations: are global imbalances consistent with intertemporal budget constraints?," International Finance Discussion Papers 975, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 1063-1093, July.
    14. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "The Implications of Dark Matter for Assessing the US External Imbalance," CID Working Papers 137, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    15. Filipa Sá & Francesca Viani, 2013. "Shifts in Portfolio Preferences of International Investors: An Application to Sovereign Wealth Funds," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 868-885, November.
    16. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Durdu, C. Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2013. "On the solvency of nations: Cross-country evidence on the dynamics of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 762-780.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2006. "Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates: An Equilibrium Model vs. A Disequilibrium Reality," Working Paper Series rwp06-035, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Benhima, Kenza, 2013. "A reappraisal of the allocation puzzle through the portfolio approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 331-346.
    20. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 170-180, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:globalimbal. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicolás Del Ponte The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Nicolás Del Ponte to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeutdar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.