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Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory

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  • Burda, Michael C.
  • Härdle, Wolfgang
  • Müller, Marlene
  • Werwatz, Axel

Abstract

East-West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 90s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyze the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields nonlinear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter nonparametrically. We find the estimate of the nonparametric inuence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option-value-of-waiting theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Burda, Michael C. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Müller, Marlene & Werwatz, Axel, 1997. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:19983
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    1. Felix Büchel ; Johannes Schwarze, 1994. "Die Migration von Ost- nach Westdeutschland: Absichtserklärung und Realisierung," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 87, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Burda, Michael C., 1993. "The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
    4. Oded Stark, 1991. "The Migration of Labor," Blackwell Books, Wiley Blackwell, number 1557860300, April.
    5. Härdle, W.K. & Mammen, E. & Müller, M.D., 1996. "Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models," Discussion Paper 1996-42, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Härdle, W.K. & Mammen, E. & Müller, M.D., 1996. "Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models," Other publications TiSEM 3b9b6d39-869e-4ecd-9982-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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