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The Labor Impact of Coal Phase Down Scenarios in Chile

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  • Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
  • Feng, Kuishuang

Abstract

This study explores the labour impact of four scenarios of electricity generation in Chile, including three coal power phase-down scenarios. These scenarios would result in the creation of between 32 and 40 thousand direct and indirect jobs and between US$1.7 and US$1.8 billion in value added in 2030, compared to present-day situation. Net numbers mask winners and losers. The most significative negative impact we find would be the progressive disappearance of 4 thousand jobs in coal power plants by 2030 or 2050 depending on the scenario. These impacts are not significant when compared to Chile’s labor markets and GDP. Chile’s economy routinely creates more than 40 thousand jobs per trimester, and US$1.7 billion is just 0.8% of GDP, while GDP is expected to grow at least 2.5% per year between today and 2030. At the national level, our results suggest that a careful planning and implementation of coal phase out could be able to mitigate its negative impacts, given that they will be small relative to the size of Chile’s economy. In practice, whether the jobs created nationally match the skills available in the geographical location of current coal power plants is likely to play a key role. This study does not investigate this issue, but a separate technical note studies affected communities with more details and provides lessons learned from historic management of the labor impacts of policy reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Feng, Kuishuang, 2019. "The Labor Impact of Coal Phase Down Scenarios in Chile," EconStor Preprints 216904, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:216904
    DOI: 10.18235/0001961
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adrien Vogt‐Schilb & Stephane Hallegatte, 2017. "Climate policies and nationally determined contributions: reconciling the needed ambition with the political economy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(6), November.
    2. Quentin Perrier & Philippe Quirion, 2016. "La transition énergétique est-elle favorable aux branches à fort contenu en emploi ? Une approche input-output pour la France," Policy Papers 2016.02, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    3. Adrien Vogt‐Schilb & Stephane Hallegatte, 2017. "Climate policies and nationally determined contributions: reconciling the needed ambition with the political economy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(6), November.
    4. Garrett-Peltier, Heidi, 2017. "Green versus brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 439-447.
    5. Jeffrey C Peters, 2016. "The GTAP-Power Data Base: Disaggregating the Electricity Sector in the GTAP Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 209-250, June.
    6. Simas, Moana & Pacca, Sergio, 2014. "Assessing employment in renewable energy technologies: A case study for wind power in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 83-90.
    7. Fergus Green, 2018. "Transition policy for climate change mitigation: who, what, why and how," CCEP Working Papers 1807, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) & Deep Decarbonization Pathways for Latin America and the Caribbean (DDPLAC), 2019. "Getting to Net-Zero Emissions: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 216902, March.
    2. Raúl Delgado & Huáscar Eguino & Aloisio Lopes, 2021. "Fiscal Policy and Climate Change," Post-Print halshs-03371797, HAL.
    3. Grottera, Carolina, 2022. "Reducing emissions from the energy sector for a more resilient and low-carbon post-pandemic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documentos de Proyectos 47868, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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    Keywords

    Labor impacts; Coal phase out; Climate change; Chile; Input-output analysis; Scenario analysis; Just Transition;
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