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Ambitioniert, aber vertretbar: Einordnung eines 16-Euro-Mindestlohns

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  • Steuernagel, Anne
  • Krahé, Max

Abstract

Im Kontext des Inflationsschubs der Jahre 2022/23, der damit einhergehenden Reallohnverluste und des nach wie vor großen Niedriglohnsektors in Deutschland gibt es anhaltende Diskussionen über eine weitere deutliche Anhebung des Mindestlohns. Angesichts des bisherigen Erfolgs dieses Politikinstruments und um den Möglichkeitenraum auch jenseits der 14 und 15 Euro, die zuletzt gefordert wurden, zu erkunden, bietet dieses Papier eine erste Einordnung eines möglichen Mindestlohns in Höhe von 16 Euro. Drei Aspekte werden untersucht: Wer würde von einer solchen Anhebung berührt, welche Arbeitsmarkteffekte wären zu erwarten und was wären die fiskalischen Konsequenzen? Unsere Schlussfolgerung ist: eine schrittweise Anhebung auf diese Höhe ist ambitioniert, aber vertretbar. Jedoch müssten, wie bereits bei der Erhöhung auf 12 Euro, Verstöße gegen das Mindestlohngesetz genau im Auge behalten werden. Gerade eine Besetzung der noch offenen Planstellen in den Hauptzollämtern hätte hohe Priorität. Auch die weitere Entwicklung der geringfügigen Beschäftigung müsste genau beobachtet werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Steuernagel, Anne & Krahé, Max, 2024. "Ambitioniert, aber vertretbar: Einordnung eines 16-Euro-Mindestlohns," Papers 297838, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:297838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Mindestlohn; Arbeitsmarkt;

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