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Unterschiedliche Markteinschätzungen von Spekulanten als Determinante des Rohölpreises

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  • Möbert, Jochen

Abstract

Bis zum Amtsantritt von Gary Gensler ging die US Commodity Futures Trading Commission von einem geringen Einfluss der Spekulanten auf den Rohölpreis aus, während nun eine Neubewertung stattfindet.Dieser Artikel misst die Aktivität der Spekulanten mit Hilfe von Variablen der wöchentlichen CFTC-Marktberichte und untersucht den Einfluss von Spekulanten auf den Rohölpreis und die Rohölpreisvolatilität mit Hilfe ökonometrischer Verfahren. Die Ergebnisse legen einen Einfluss der unterschiedlichen Markteinschätzungen von Spekulanten sowohl auf den Rohölpreis als auch die Preisvolatilität nahe.

Suggested Citation

  • Möbert, Jochen, 2009. "Unterschiedliche Markteinschätzungen von Spekulanten als Determinante des Rohölpreises," Research Notes 32, Deutsche Bank Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crude oil market; futures market; speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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