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Die Bewertung der Umstellung einer einjährigen Ackerkultur auf den Anbau von Miscanthus: Eine Anwendung des Realoptionsansatzes

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  • Diekmann, Anton
  • Wolbert-Haverkamp, Matthias
  • Mußhoff, Oliver

Abstract

Viele Studien zeigen, dass Miscanthus (MSC) im Vergleich zum klassischen Ackerbau ökonomisch vorteilhaft sein kann. Dennoch bauen Landwirte nur vereinzelt MSC an. Es hat daher den Anschein, dass Landwirte der traditionellen Investitionstheorie nicht folgen. Im Unterschied zur traditionellen Investitionstheorie berücksichtigt der Realoptionsansatz (ROA) Irreversibilität und zeitliche Flexibilität einer Investition sowie die Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der Rückflüsse. Aus diesem Grund können die Investitionstrigger des ROA, ab denen ein Entscheider investieren sollte, höher als die der traditionellen Investitionstheorie sein. Häufig wird daraus in nicht MSC-Kontexten geschlussfolgert, dass der ROA Investitionszurückhaltung erklären kann. In vielen Anwendungen wird allerdings die Desinvestitionsmöglichkeit vernachlässigt. Es besteht daher die Gefahr, dass die gemäß ROA berechneten Investitionstrigger überhöht sind. Wir sind die ersten, die den ROA auf die Umstellungsmöglichkeit von klassischem Ackerbau auf MSC anwenden und mit Hilfe einer Kombination aus genetischem Algorithmus und stochastischer Simulation Investitions- bzw. Umstellungstrigger (mit und ohne Rückumstellungsmöglichkeit) bestimmen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Umstellungstrigger des ROA bedeutend höher sind als die der traditionellen Investitionstheorie. Allerdings führt die Vernachlässigung der Rückumstellungsmöglichkeit zu einer Überschätzung der Umstellungszurückhaltung. Ein zunehmender Grad an Risikoaversion führt zu einer Verringerung der Umstellungstrigger beider Theorien. Es kann geschlussfolgert werden, dass der ROA die Zurückhaltung der Landwirte bei der Umstellung auf MSC zumindest teilweise erklären kann.

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  • Diekmann, Anton & Wolbert-Haverkamp, Matthias & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2014. "Die Bewertung der Umstellung einer einjährigen Ackerkultur auf den Anbau von Miscanthus: Eine Anwendung des Realoptionsansatzes," DARE Discussion Papers 1406, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:daredp:1406
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    Keywords

    Landnutzung; traditionelle Investitionstheorie; Realoptionsansatz; genetischer Algorithmus; Miscanthus; Weizen;
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