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Eine panelökonometrische Überprüfung der ökonomischen Theorie der Kriminalität mit deutschen Bundesländerdaten

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  • Spengler, Hannes

Abstract

Gemäß der klassischen ökonomischen Theorie der Kriminalität sollte ein Anstieg der erwarteten Strafe (also des Produktes aus Strafwahrscheinlichkeit und Strafmaß) eine Reduktion der Kriminalität bewirken. In der empirischen Analyse gestaltet sich ein Test dieser überschaubar anmutenden Hypothese als äußerst komplex. 'Kriminalität' gliedert sich in eine Vielzahl von Deliktgruppen und die Operationalisierung von 'Strafwahrscheinlichkeit' durchläuft im rechtsstaatlichen System die Handlungen und Entscheidungen der Institutionen 'Polizei', 'Staatsanwaltschaft' und 'Gericht' und variiert in den Zahlen zu Aufklärungs-, Anklage- und Verurteilungsquoten sowie in Entscheidungen über Geld-, Haft- und Bewährungs- oder Jugendstrafen. Üblicherweise wird in der empirischen Kriminalitätsforschung nur ein Bruchteil dieser Zusammenhänge gleichzeitig berücksichtigt. Den Autoren der Studie ist es gelungen, dieses Defizit zu überwinden und eine entsprechend umfassende, mit Bundesländerdaten des Zeitraums 1977 - 2001 der Polizeilichen Kriminalstatistik und der Strafverfolgungsstatistik aufgebaute Datenbank (RegKrimDA) zu erstellen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Daten und ihre Nutzbarkeit anhand deskriptiver Beschreibungen und einer panelökonometrischen Untersuchung der Wirkung des deutschen Strafverfolgungssystems auf das Kriminalitätsaufkommen in sechs wichtigen Deliktgruppen vorgestellt. Die Ergebnisse liefern deutliche Anzeichen für die Wirksamkeit von Abschreckung. Als wichtigster kriminalitätsreduzierender Faktor erweist sich die Verurteilungswahrscheinlichkeit von Tatverdächtigen. Eine konsequentere Verurteilung von prinzipiell anklagefähigen Tatverdächtigen, deren Ermittlungsverfahren in den letzten Jahren immer häufiger von den Staatsanwaltschaften eingestellt werden, könnte daher - entgegen der Auffassung weiter Teile der deutschen Kriminologie - sinnvoll sein. In einem Forschungsausblick wird aufgezeigt, wie die Datenbank unter Nutzung entsprechender Methoden und Erweiterungen im Rahmen von Kosten- Nutzen-Analysen der deutschen Kriminalpolitik eingesetzt werden könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Spengler, Hannes, 2005. "Eine panelökonometrische Überprüfung der ökonomischen Theorie der Kriminalität mit deutschen Bundesländerdaten," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 150, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:darddp:dar_36801
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Empirische Kriminalitätsforschung; Ökonometrie; Ökonomische Theorie der Kriminalität; Strafe; Strafverfolgung; Generalprävention; Abschreckung; Diversion; Paneldaten; Integration; IV-Schätzung; Nickel Bias; Ratio Bias; Kosten der Kriminalität; Kosten- Nutzen-Analyse; Kriminalprävention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • H73 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Interjurisdictional Differentials and Their Effects

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