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Ökonometrie der Kriminalität

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  • Entorf, Horst
  • Spengler, Hannes

Abstract

Gemäß der klassischen ökonomischen Theorie der Kriminalität sollte ein Anstieg der erwarteten Strafe (also des Produktes aus Strafwahrscheinlichkeit und Strafmaß) eine Reduktion der Kriminalität bewirken. In der empirischen Analyse gestaltet sich ein Test dieser Hypothese als äußerst komplex. "Kriminalität" gliedert sich in eine Vielzahl von Deliktgruppen und die Operationalisierung von "Strafwahrscheinlichkeit" durchläuft im rechtsstaatlichen System die Handlungen und Entscheidungen der Institutionen "Polizei", "Staatsanwaltschaft" und "Gericht" und variiert in den Zahlen zu Aufklärungs-, Anklage- und Verurteilungsquoten sowie in Entscheidungen über Geld-, Haft- und Bewährungs- oder Jugendstrafen. Üblicherweise wird in der empirischen Kriminalitätsforschung nur einen Bruchteil dieser Zusammenhänge gleichzeitig berücksichtigt. Prof. Dr. Horst Entorf, TU Darmstadt, und Hannes Spengler, DIW, Berlin, und TU Darmstadt, erstellten eine umfassende, mit Bundesländerdaten des Zeitraums 1977-2001 der Polizeilichen Kriminalstatistik und der Strafverfolgungsstatistik aufgebaute Datenbank. In diesem Beitrag werden die Daten und ihre Nutzbarkeit anhand deskriptiver Beschreibungen und einer panelökonometrischen Untersuchung der Wirkung des deutschen Strafverfolgungssystems auf das Aufkommen an Kriminalität in den sechs wichtigsten Deliktgruppen vorgestellt. Die Ergebnisse liefern deutliche Anzeichen für die Wirksamkeit von Abschreckung und somit eine empirische Bestätigung der ökonomischen Theorie der Kriminalität.
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  • Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2005. "Ökonometrie der Kriminalität," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 24945, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:24945
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/24945/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Entorf, Horst, 2007. "Evaluation des Maßregelvollzugs: Grundzüge einer Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 183, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. Entorf, Horst, 2014. "Jenseits der Fallzahlen: Die Kriminalitätsentwicklung bei ökonomischer Bewertung der Schäden," IZA Standpunkte 73, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Entorf, Horst, 2014. "Anmerkungen zur Herleitung eines schadensgewichteten Index der Kriminalitätsentwicklung [On the construction of a severity-based index of crime]," MPRA Paper 56626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Horst, Entorf, 2014. "Was kostet uns die Kriminalität? … und welche Kosten sind durch Kriminalitätsbekämpfung vermeidbar? [What are the costs of crime? ... and what part of it can be avoided by fighting crime?]," MPRA Paper 56627, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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