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Income tax evasion dynamics: Evidence from an agent-based econophysics model

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  • Pickhardt, Michael
  • Seibold, Goetz

Abstract

We analyze income tax evasion dynamics in a standard model of statistical mechanics, the Ising model of ferromagnetism. However, in contrast to previous research, we use an inhomogeneous multi-dimensional Ising model where the local degrees of freedom (agents) are subject to a specific social temperature and coupled to external fields which govern their social behavior. This new modeling frame allows for analyzing large societies of four different and interacting agent types. As a second novelty, our model may reproduce results from agent-based models that incorporate standard Allingham and Sandmo tax evasion features as well as results from existing two-dimensional Ising based tax evasion models. We then use our model for analyzing income tax evasion dynamics under different enforcement scenarios and point to some policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Pickhardt, Michael & Seibold, Goetz, 2011. "Income tax evasion dynamics: Evidence from an agent-based econophysics model," CAWM Discussion Papers 53, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cawmdp:53
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    Cited by:

    1. Pellizzari, Paolo & Rizzi, Dino, 2014. "Citizenship and power in an agent-based model of tax compliance with public expenditure," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 35-48.
    2. Semjén, András, 2017. "Az adózói magatartás különféle magyarázatai [Various explanations for tax compliance]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 140-184.
    3. Rao, R. Kavita & Tandon, Suranjali, 2016. "Revisiting the tax compliance problem using prospect theory," Working Papers 16/169, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Gao, Li, 2015. "Evolution of consumption distribution and model of wealth distribution in China between 1995 and 2012," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 76-86.
    5. R.Kavita Rao & Suranjali Tandon, 2016. "Revisiting the Tax Compliance Problem using Prospect Theory," Working Papers id:11225, eSocialSciences.
    6. Lorenz, Johannes & Diller, Markus & Sureth, Caren, 2021. "The epidemiology of tax avoidance narratives," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 268, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    7. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    8. V.A. Molodykh, 2021. "Impact of Short-Term Exogenous Shocks on Taxpayer Behavior and Tax Evasion," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(2), pages 241-268.
    9. F. W. S. Lima, 2012. "Tax Evasion And Nonequilibrium Model On Apollonian Networks," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1-8.
    10. Sascha Hokamp & Götz Seibold, 2014. "Tax Compliance and Public Goods Provision. An Agent-based Econophysics Approach," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 217-236, December.
    11. Giraldo-Barreto, Julian & Restrepo, J., 2021. "Tax evasion study in a society realized as a diluted Ising model with competing interactions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    12. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos & Nikolaos Daskalakis, 2016. "Tax compliance behaviour during the crisis: the case of Greek SMEs," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 405-444, December.
    13. Pickhardt, Michael & Prinz, Aloys, 2014. "Behavioral dynamics of tax evasion – A survey," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-19.
    14. Hokamp, Sascha, 2014. "Dynamics of tax evasion with back auditing, social norm updating, and public goods provision – An agent-based simulation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 187-199.
    15. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    16. Dino Rizzi, 2017. "Tax Evasion Indices and Profiles," Public Finance Review, , vol. 45(6), pages 771-791, November.
    17. Laszlo Gulyas & Tamás Mahr & Istvan Janos Toth, 2015. "Factors to Curb Tax Evasion: Evidences from the TAXSIM Agent-Based Simulation Model," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1521, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    18. E.V. Balatsky & N.A. Ekimova, 2021. "Fiscal and Social Effectiveness Assessment of the Personal Income Tax Reform in Russia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 20(2), pages 175-193.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax evasion; tax compliance; Ising Model; econophysics; numerical simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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