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Climate transition risk stress test for the German financial system

Author

Listed:
  • Frankovic, Ivan
  • Etzel, Tobias
  • Falter, Alexander
  • Gross, Christian
  • Ohls, Jana
  • Strobel, Lena
  • Wilke, Hannes

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology applied in the Deutsche Bundesbank's climate transition stress test for the German financial system, see Deutsche Bundesbank (2023). It discusses the construction of the transition scenarios underlying the analysis, including a long-run orderly scenario and a more disruptive short-term carbon price shock. Furthermore, the document shows the methodology for translating scenario impacts onto the asset level, which includes the consideration of firm-level carbon emission data where available. Finally, the impacts on the balance sheets of German banks, funds and insurers are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankovic, Ivan & Etzel, Tobias & Falter, Alexander & Gross, Christian & Ohls, Jana & Strobel, Lena & Wilke, Hannes, 2023. "Climate transition risk stress test for the German financial system," Technical Papers 04/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubtps:283347
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/283347/1/technical-paper-2023-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankovic, Ivan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "The role of emission disclosure for the low-carbon transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Lilas Demmou & Sara Calligaris & Guido Franco & Dennis Dlugosch & Müge Adalet McGowan & Sahra Sakha, 2021. "Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1651, OECD Publishing.
    3. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    4. Frankovic, Ivan, 2022. "The impact of carbon pricing in a multi-region production network model and an application to climate scenarios," Discussion Papers 07/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Antoine Devulder & Noëmie Lisack, 2020. "Carbon Tax in a Production Network: Propagation and Sectoral Incidence," Working papers 760, Banque de France.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate risks; stress testing; climate scenarios; financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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