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The Propagation of Business Expectations within the European Union

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  • Anja Kukuvec
  • Harald Oberhofer

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the propagation of fims’ expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine EU-wide official business survey data with world input-output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input-output-linkages and apply space-time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillovers in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Kukuvec & Harald Oberhofer, 2020. "The Propagation of Business Expectations within the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 8198, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Lena Boneva & James Cloyne & Martin Weale & Tomasz Wieladek, 2020. "Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(627), pages 555-586.
    6. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    9. Harald Badinger & Peter Egger, 2011. "Estimation of higher‐order spatial autoregressive cross‐section models with heteroscedastic disturbances," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 213-235, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Monique B. Reid & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "How Firms and Experts View The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual and Aggregate Data from South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3355-3376, September.
    2. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business expectation formation; propagation; input-output linkages; spillovers; space-time model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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