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Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns

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  • Döpke, Jörg
  • Hartmann, Daniel
  • Pierdzioch, Christian

Abstract

We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante stock-return predictability. 2) The performance of an investor who had to rely on noisy real-time macroeconomic data would have been comparable to the performance of an investor who had access to revised macroeconomic data. 3) In real time, it is important for an investor to know which real-time variable to use for predicting stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    5. Britta Hamburg & Mathias Hoffmann & Joachim Keller, 2008. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 451-476, June.
    6. Koetter, M. & Bos, J.W.B. & Heid, F. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M. & Porath, D., 2007. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3200-3217, October.
    7. Döpke, Jörg & Funke, Michael & Holly, Sean & Weber, Sebastian, 2005. "The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles: a bird's eye view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2005. "A "wreckers theory" of financial distress," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Hördahl & Frank Packer, 2007. "Understanding asset prices: an overview," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 34.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2018. "Dissecting long-run and short-run causalities between monetary policy and stock prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 761-786, October.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0435 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Stock Prices and Central Banks - Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," Ruhr Economic Papers 0435, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Wiedmann, Marcel, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Stock Prices and Central Banks - Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," Ruhr Economic Papers 435, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Money, Stock Prices and Central Banks – Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," ROME Working Papers 201308, ROME Network.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ex ante predictability of stock returns; real-time macroeconomic data; performance of investment strategies; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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