IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bonedp/212001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Anticipated Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Gottschalk, Jan
  • Höppner, Florian

Abstract

This paper investigates within a SVAR framework the effects of anticipated monetary policy in the euro area. Building on a procedure recently proposed by Cochrane yielding the response of output to an anticipated monetary policy impulse, we show that in the past twenty years anticipated monetary policy had a considerable influence on output. Moreover, we compute the output effects of the systematic monetary policy response to aggregate demand and supply shocks. We find that monetary policy pursues a counter-cyclical policy in response to demand shocks and is pro-cyclical with regard to supply shocks, even though there are considerable lags.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottschalk, Jan & Höppner, Florian, 2001. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Anticipated Policy," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 21/2001, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:212001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/78379/1/bgse21_2001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    3. Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1998. "Comment on Glenn Rudebusch's "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?"," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 933-941, November.
    5. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    7. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-136, December.
    8. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    9. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    10. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2001. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2001," HWWA Reports 207, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    11. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    12. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2001. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2001," HWWA Reports 211, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    13. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2001. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2001," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(20), pages 03-43, November.
    14. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    15. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    16. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2001. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2001," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 7(14), pages 330-383.
    17. Höppner, Florian & Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Anticipated Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1074, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jamilu Iliyasu & Aliyu Rafindadi Sanusi, 2023. "The role of announced exchange rate policies on exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in an oil-based small open economy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Höppner, Florian & Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Anticipated Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1074, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions," Kiel Working Papers 1067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    4. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
    5. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
    6. Wolfgang Meister, 2001. "Was kosten staatliche Maßnahmen zur Konjunkturstützung?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 45-46, December.
    7. Sommer, Ulrich, 2002. "Der Markt für Zucker," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 51(01), pages 1-7.
    8. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred, 2007. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2007," Kiel Discussion Papers 445/446, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Peter Jäckel & Jan Müller, 2001. "ifo Investitionstest im Baugewerbe: 2001 deutlich reduzierte Investitionsbudgets - in West und Ost," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(13), pages 35-44, September.
    11. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    12. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    13. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim, 2007. "Deutsche Konjunktur: Aufschwungskräfte behalten die Oberhand," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4095, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    16. Carlo Altavilla, 2003. "Assessing monetary rules performance across EMU countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 131-151.
    17. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    18. Jens R. Clausen & Juergen B. Donges, 2001. "European Monetary Policy: The Ongoing Debate on Conceptual Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(10), pages 1309-1326, November.
    19. Joao Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 205-218.
    20. Huchet, Marilyne, 2003. "Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-178, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector Autoregression; Systematic Monetary Policy; Historical Decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:212001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gsbonde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.