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Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions

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  • Gottschalk, Jan

Abstract

In this paper, the structural vector autoregression methodology is used to decompose the euro area nominal short-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of the monetary policy stance of the ECB. To this end, a vector autoregression model comprised of the differenced interest rate series and the stationary component of the real interest rate is estimated and shocks to expected inflation and the ex-ante real rate are identified using the long-run restriction that only shocks to expected inflation have long-run effects on the nominal interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions," Kiel Working Papers 1067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1067
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    Cited by:

    1. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2013. "Inflationary expectations and monetary policy: evidence from Bangladesh," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1155-1169, June.
    2. Peng Su & Xiaochun Jiang & Wei Sun, 2018. "The Flexible Acceleration Mechanism of China’s Capital Adjustment with the Goal of Consumption-Driven Sustainable Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    4. Rokon Bhuiyan & Robert F. Lucas, 2007. "Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocks," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 679-702, May.
    5. Al-Jarhi, Mabid, 2000. "السياسات النقدية في إطار إسلامي [Monetary Policy in an Islamic Framework]," MPRA Paper 67547, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2002.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy stance; Inflation expectations; Structural vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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