IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/59368.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Impact on Russia’s Exports: Some Evidence from an Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bouoiyour, jamal
  • Selmi, Refk

Abstract

The core focus of this paper is to analyze the dynamic interactions between changes in exchange rate (nominal and real terms) and exports to GDP ratio in Russia. To this end, we apply a new approach based on a time varying dynamic coherence function, called, evolutionary co-spectral analysis. Our results put in evidence that coherence pattern differs over time, suggesting that nonlinearities are an important issue when assessing the focal relationship. These observed outcomes change substantially in terms of magnitude when subtracting energy, while differential price stills the major player. We can attribute these findings to the limited effectiveness of exchange rate policy and the inefficiency of sterilization coupled with a lack of competitiveness of banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouoiyour, jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "Exchange Rate Impact on Russia’s Exports: Some Evidence from an Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis," MPRA Paper 59368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59368
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59368/2/MPRA_paper_59368.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    2. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    3. Baffes, John, 2007. "Oil spills on other commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 126-134, September.
    4. Daly, Kevin, 1998. "Does exchange rate volatility impede the volume of Japan's bilateral trade?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 333-348, July.
    5. Anna Créti & Zied Ftiti & Khaleb Guesmi, 2013. "Oil price impact on financial markets: co-spectral analysis for exporting versus importing countries," Working Papers hal-00822070, HAL.
    6. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "Commodity price uncertainty and manufactured exports in Morocco and Tunisia: Some insights from a novel GARCH model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 220-233.
    7. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
    8. Zied Ftiti, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Performance of the Inflation Targeting Policy: An Approach Based on the Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis," Working Papers 0918, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    9. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and export performance in Egypt: New insights from wavelet decomposition and optimal GARCH model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 201-227, March.
    10. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility, and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another Blur Project?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 577-593, August.
    11. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 446-463, September.
    12. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2006. "Does inflation or currency depreciation drive monetary policy in Russia?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-179, June.
    13. Brigitte Granville & Sushanta Mallick, 2006. "Monetary Policy in Russia," Springer Books, in: Lúcio Vinhas de Souza & Oleh Havrylyshyn (ed.), Return to Growth in CIS Countries, chapter 0, pages 73-89, Springer.
    14. McKenzie, Michael D. & Brooks, Robert D., 1997. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-87, April.
    15. Ftiti, Zied, 2010. "The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 468-476, January.
    16. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
    17. Bruno Coric & Geoff Pugh, 2010. "The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(20), pages 2631-2644.
    18. Roland Beck & Geoff Barnard, 2009. "Towards a Flexible Exchange Rate Policy in Russia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 744, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "A Synthesis of the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 263-294, August.
    3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    4. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Robust is the Connection between Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Tunisia’s Exports?," MPRA Paper 57505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Wen, Shaobo & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2017. "The multiscale impact of exchange rates on the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from China and Russia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 667-678.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Robust is the Connection between Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Tunisia’s Exports?," MPRA Paper 57505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    3. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and export performance in Egypt: New insights from wavelet decomposition and optimal GARCH model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 201-227, March.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty interact with International Trade? A Meta-Analysis Revisited," MPRA Paper 56201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "A synthesis of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on international trade via Meta-Regression analysis," MPRA Paper 65737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    7. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    9. Rahmatsyah, Teuku & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Siregar, Reza Y., 2002. "Exchange-rate volatility, trade and "fixing for life" in Thailand," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 445-470, December.
    10. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "A Synthesis of the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 263-294, August.
    11. Innocent U Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh & Benedict I Uzoechina & Gabriel O Ebenyi & Ekechi Chukwuka, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Nigerian Scenario," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(1), pages 11-28.
    12. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "A Synthesis of the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 263-294, August.
    13. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "Exchange Uncertainty and Export Performance in Egypt: New Insights from Wavelet Decomposition and Optimal GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 59568, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    14. Rümeysa ÇELİK, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017)," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 68(1), pages 181-180, June.
    15. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-062 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. David Kihangire, 2005. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability On Exports: Evidence From Uganda (1988 – 2001)," International Trade 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-62, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    18. E. M. Ekanayake & John R. Ledgerwood & Sabrina D’Souza, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(1), pages 23-35.
    19. Naseeem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui & Mohd, Siti, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regime, Exchange Rate Variability and Flows of Malaysia’s Foreign Trade," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 44, pages 35-49.
    20. Obumneke Bob Muoneke & Kingsley Ikechukwu Okere & Favour Chidinma Onuoha, 2023. "Extreme exchange rate dynamics and export trade in the selected oil-exporting countries in Africa. Multiple asymmetric threshold non-linear ARDL approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 854-877, August.
    21. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and export performance: what meta-analysis reveals?," MPRA Paper 49249, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; exports; time varying dynamic coherence function; Russia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.