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Exchange Rate Impact on Russia’s Exports: Some Evidence from an Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis

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  • Bouoiyour, jamal
  • Selmi, Refk

Abstract

The core focus of this paper is to analyze the dynamic interactions between changes in exchange rate (nominal and real terms) and exports to GDP ratio in Russia. To this end, we apply a new approach based on a time varying dynamic coherence function, called, evolutionary co-spectral analysis. Our results put in evidence that coherence pattern differs over time, suggesting that nonlinearities are an important issue when assessing the focal relationship. These observed outcomes change substantially in terms of magnitude when subtracting energy, while differential price stills the major player. We can attribute these findings to the limited effectiveness of exchange rate policy and the inefficiency of sterilization coupled with a lack of competitiveness of banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouoiyour, jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "Exchange Rate Impact on Russia’s Exports: Some Evidence from an Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis," MPRA Paper 59368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and export performance in Egypt: New insights from wavelet decomposition and optimal GARCH model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 201-227, March.
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    14. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2014. "Commodity price uncertainty and manufactured exports in Morocco and Tunisia: Some insights from a novel GARCH model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 220-233.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "A Synthesis of the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 263-294, August.
    3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    4. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Robust is the Connection between Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Tunisia’s Exports?," MPRA Paper 57505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Wen, Shaobo & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2017. "The multiscale impact of exchange rates on the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from China and Russia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 667-678.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; exports; time varying dynamic coherence function; Russia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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