IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/8329.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Nominal Income Targeting

In: Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Robert E. Hall
  • N. Gregory Mankiw

Abstract

This paper discusses nominal income targeting as a possible rule for the conduct of monetary policy. We begin by discussing why a rule for monetary policy may be desirable and the characteristics that a good rule should have. We emphasize, in particular, three types of nominal income targets, which differ in how they respond to past shocks, to prices, and real economic activity. A key question is how any of these rules might be implemented in practice. We suggest that the consensus forecast of future nominal income could playa role in ensuring that the central bank does not deviate from its announced target. To show how economic performance might have differed historically if the Fed had been committed to some type of nominal income target, we offer simulations of a simple model of the economy. According to the simulations, the primary benefit of nominal income targeting would have been reduced volatility in the price level and the inflation rate. Whether real economic activity would have been less volatile is unclear.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:8329
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8329.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asako, Kazumi & Wagner, Helmut, 1992. "Nominal Income Targeting versus Money Supply Targeting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 167-187, May.
    2. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1991. "Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061414, April.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 1983. "The Conduct of Domestic Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "Targeting Nominal Income: A Note," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1077-1083, December.
    5. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 19-90.
    6. Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Dynamic inconsistency, cooperation and the benevolent dissembling government," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 93-107, May.
    7. Meade, James E, 1993. "The Meaning of "Internal Balance."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(6), pages 3-9, December.
    8. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    9. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
    10. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
    11. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-819, December.
    12. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    13. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    15. Taylor, John B., 1985. "What would nominal GNP targetting do to the business cycle?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-84, January.
    16. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Timonen, Jouni, 1995. "Nominal income as an intermediate target for monetary policy," Research Discussion Papers 21/1995, Bank of Finland.
    4. Timonen, Jouni, 1995. "Nominal income as an intermediate target for monetary policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/1995, Bank of Finland.
    5. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
    6. Billi, Roberto M., 2018. "Price level targeting and risk management," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 163-173.
    7. Todd E. Clark, 1994. "Nominal GDP targeting rules: can they stabilize the economy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 79(Q III), pages 11-25.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    9. Fang, Chung-rou & Lai, Ching-chong, 2002. "Targeting nominal income versus targeting price level: A target zone perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249.
    10. Lai, Ching-chong & Chen, Shu-hua & Shaw, Ming-fu, 2005. "Nominal income targeting versus money growth targeting in an endogenously growing economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 359-366, March.
    11. Guender, Alfred V. & Tam, Julie, 2004. "On the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 143-163, March.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Haider Ali & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2014. "Choice of Monetary Policy Instrument under Targeting Regimes in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:102, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    14. Stan du Plessis & Malan Rietveld, 2013. "Should inflation targeting be abandoned in favour of nominal income targeting?," Working Papers 12/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    15. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1645-1660, December.
    16. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
    17. Bennett T. McCallum, 1988. "The Role of Demand Management in the Maintenance of Full Employment," NBER Working Papers 2520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
    19. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Comparison Of Product Price Targeting And Other Monetary Anchor Options, For Commodity Exporters In Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2011), pages 1-70, August.
    20. Charles Bean, 2009. "'The Meaning of Internal Balance' Thirty Years On," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(541), pages 442-460, November.
    21. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options, Including Product Price Targeting, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 16362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:8329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.