IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wsr/wpaper/y2013i112.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rate volatility, financial constraints and trade: empirical evidence from Chinese firms

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Héricourt
  • Sandra Poncet

Abstract

This paper studies how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigates whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the period 2000-2006. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that the value exported by firms, as well as their probability of entering new export markets, decrease for destinations with higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development does seem to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide microfounded evidence that financial constraints may play a key role in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility, financial constraints and trade: empirical evidence from Chinese firms," FIW Working Paper series 112, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_112-HericourtPoncet.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: none
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    3. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2004. "Dissecting Trade: Firms, Industries, and Export Destinations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 150-154, May.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime [‘Working with the IMF to strengthen exchange rate surveillance’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 576-627.
    8. Eckel, Carsten & Iacovone, Leonardo & Javorcik, Beata & Neary, J. Peter, 2015. "Multi-product firms at home and away: Cost- versus quality-based competence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 216-232.
    9. Caglayan, Mustafa & Demir, Firat, 2014. "Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance, and Export Orientation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-219.
    10. Antoine Berthou & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "How do Multiproduct Exporters React to a Change in Trade Costs?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(2), pages 326-353, April.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    12. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kenza Benhima, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Liability Dollarization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 501-529, July.
    14. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    15. Berman, Nicolas & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2010. "Financial factors and the margins of trade: Evidence from cross-country firm-level data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 206-217, November.
    16. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    19. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    20. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, January.
    21. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    22. Albert Park & Dean Yang & Xinzheng Shi & Yuan Jiang, 2010. "Exporting and Firm Performance: Chinese Exporters and the Asian Financial Crisis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 822-842, November.
    23. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Firm heterogeneity, exporting and foreign direct investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(517), pages 134-161, February.
    24. Byrne, Joseph P. & Darby, Julia & MacDonald, Ronald, 2008. "US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 238-259, March.
    25. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:22:y:2007:i::p:575-627 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Minetti, Raoul & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2011. "Credit constraints and firm export: Microeconomic evidence from Italy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 109-125, March.
    27. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2011. "Multiproduct Firms and Trade Liberalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(3), pages 1271-1318.
    28. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    29. Kalina Manova & Shang-Jin Wei & Zhiwei Zhang, 2015. "Firm Exports and Multinational Activity Under Credit Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 574-588, July.
    30. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    31. Kroszner, Randall S. & Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2007. "Banking crises, financial dependence, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 187-228, April.
    32. Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
    33. Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, June.
    34. Froot, Kenneth A., 1989. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Cross-Sectional Dependence and Heteroskedasticity in Financial Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 333-355, September.
    35. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:22:y:2007:i::p:575-627 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    37. Li, Hongbin & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2015. "How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports? — A firm-level investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 148-161.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Chen, Ting & Luo, Wenjie & Xiang, Xunyong, 2022. "Financial constraints, exchange rate changes and export price: Evidence from Chinese exporters," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    3. Smallwood, Aaron D., 2019. "Analyzing exchange rate uncertainty and bilateral export growth in China: A multivariate GARCH-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 332-344.
    4. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    5. Tunç, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2016. "Does exchange rate volatility matter for international sales? Evidence from US firm level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 152-156.
    6. Li, Yifan & Miao, Zhuang & Tuuli, Maxwell, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and import of intermediate inputs: Evidence from Chinese firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-134.
    7. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2017. "Not all firms react the same to exchange rate volatility? A firm level study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-430.
    8. Zhe Chen & Junjie Hong & Xiaonan Sun, 2020. "Exchange rate risk and trade mode choice in processing trade: Evidence from Chinese data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 537-564, May.
    9. Dai, Mi & Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F. & Xu, Jianwei, 2021. "Access to finance and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Camara Kwasi Obeng, 2018. "Is the effect of exchange rate volatility on export diversification symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1460027-146, January.
    11. Cengiz Tunc & Senol Babuşçu & Adalet Hazar & M. Nihat Solakoglu, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: External Exchange Rate Volatility Matters," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-19, June.
    12. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Forouheshfar, Yeganeh, 2015. "The impact of yuan internationalization on the stability of the international monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 115-135.
    13. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    14. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.
    15. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Lucey, Brian & Xiaoxue, Wang & Yanfang, Wang & Ying, Xu, 2020. "Can financial marketization mitigate the negative effect of exchange rate fluctuations on exports? Evidence from Chinese regions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    17. Roberto Alvarez & Andrés Zahler, 2014. "Export Mix Changes and Firm Performance: Evidence from Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 85354, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Upadhyaya, Kamal & Bhandari, Rabindra & Mixon, Franklin G. JR., 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and its Impact on China's Trade with the United States," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 373-388.
    19. Senol Babuşçu & Adalet Hazar & M. Nihat Solakoglu & Cengiz Tunc, 2019. "Sector-Level Competition and Export: Evidence from Exporter Dynamics Database," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 1-18, October.
    20. Hu, Chenghao, 2024. "Finance dependence and exchange rate pass-through: Empirical evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    21. Li, Yifan & Miao, Zhuang, 2019. "Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Imports: Evidences from Chinese Firms," MPRA Paper 95088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Martin Ruzima & Micheal Kofi Boachie, 2018. "Exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in BRICS economies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 65-77, April.
    23. Zeng, Ting & Zhao, Wei & Liu, Zhengning, 2022. "Investment response to exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from Chinese exporters," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 488-505.
    24. Bing Lu & Yaqi Wang & Xiaofen Tan, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Heterogeneous Firms and Market Concentration," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 51-75, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 550-578.
    2. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00960664 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    4. Jérôme Héricourt & Clément Nedoncelle, 2015. "Relative Real Exchange-Rate Volatility, Multi-Destination Firms and Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2015-03, CEPII research center.
    5. Ngo Van Long & Yifan Li & Zhuang Miao, 2020. "Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Diversity: The Role of Production Constraints," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-41, CIRANO.
    6. Shu Lin & Kang Shi & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and trade: The role of credit constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 203-222, October.
    7. Caglayan, Mustafa & Demir, Firat, 2014. "Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance, and Export Orientation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-219.
    8. Mustafa Caglayan & Firat Demir, 2011. "Firm productivity, exchange rate movements, sources of finance and export orientationInventories and sales uncertainty," Working Papers 2011004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
    9. Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni & Chiara Tomasi, 2016. "Export price adjustments under financial constraints," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1057-1085, August.
    10. Sofia Anyfantaki & Sarantis Kalyvitis & Margarita Katsimi & Eirini Thomaidou, 2018. "Export pricing at the firm level with panel data," Working Papers 241, Bank of Greece.
    11. Li, Jie & Lan, Liping & Ouyang, Zhigang, 2020. "Credit constraints, currency depreciation and international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Miao, Zhuang & Li, Yifan, 2017. "Trade Scopes across Destinations: Evidence from Chinese Firm," MPRA Paper 80863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2017.
    13. Zhang, Teng & Ouyang, Puman, 2018. "Is RMB appreciation a nightmare for the Chinese firms? An analysis on firm profitability and exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 27-43.
    14. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    15. Berman, Nicolas & Berthou, Antoine & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2015. "Export dynamics and sales at home," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 298-310.
    16. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2017. "Not all firms react the same to exchange rate volatility? A firm level study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-430.
    17. Fracasso, Andrea & Secchi, Angelo & Tomasi, Chiara, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 135-152.
    18. Zhou, Tianhang & Li, Xue & Yan, Guo & Li, Jie, 2022. "How productivity and credit constraints affect exports differently? Firm-level evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 207-230.
    19. Ricardo Lopez, 2015. "Long Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 86, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    20. Ricardo A. López & Huong D. Nguyen, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 972-995, November.
    21. Li, Jie & Ouyang, Zhigang & Zhang, Naixin, 2023. "Processing trade and credit constraints," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; financial development; exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.