IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/475.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Conjecture on the Explanation for High Unemployment in the Industrialized Nations : Part I

Author

Listed:
  • Oswald Andrew J.

Abstract

The paper conjectures that the high unemployment of the Western economies has been produced by the decline of the private house-rental market and the rise of home-ownership. Evidence is provided for the developed nations, the states of the USA, and the regions of the UK, Italy, France and Sweden. Although its calculations should be viewed as tentative, the paper's results imply that a 10 percentage point rise in the owner-occupation rate is associated with an increase of approximately 2 percentage points in the unemployment rate. This would be sufficient to explain a significant part of the rise in joblessness in the industrialized countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Oswald Andrew J., 1996. "A Conjecture on the Explanation for High Unemployment in the Industrialized Nations : Part I," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 475, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/1995-1998/twerp_475.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oswald, Andrew J, 1986. "Unemployment Insurance and Labor Contracts under Asymmetric Information: Theory and Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 365-377, June.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    3. Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Unhappiness and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 648-659, May.
    4. Samuel Bentolila & Giuseppe Bertola, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad is Eurosclerosis?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    6. Junankar, P.N. & Madsen, J.B., 1994. "Unemployment in the OECD: Models, Myths and Mysteries," Papers 278, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
    7. Louis N. Christofides & Andrew J. Oswald, 1992. "Real Wage Determination and Rent-Sharing in Collective Bargaining Agreements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 985-1002.
    8. Henley, A, "undated". "Residential Mobility, Housing Wealth and the Labour Market," Discussion Papers 9615, Department of Economics, University of Wales, Aberystwyth.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, April.
    11. Gordon Hughes & Barry McCormick, 1991. "Housing Markets, Unemployment and Labour Market Flexibility in the U.K," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 83-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
    13. Hughes, G A & McCormick, B, 1985. "Migration Intentions in the U.K.: Which Households Want to Migrate and Which Succeed?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380a), pages 113-123, Supplemen.
    14. repec:bla:scotjp:v:45:y:1998:i:4:p:376-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Calmfors, Lars, 1993. "Lessons from the macroeconomic experience of Sweden," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 25-72, March.
    16. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2004. "Well-being over time in Britain and the USA," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1359-1386, July.
    17. McCormick, Barry, 1983. "Housing and Unemployment in Great Britain," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(0), pages 283-305, Supplemen.
    18. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    19. Grossman, Sanford J & Hart, Oliver D, 1981. "Implicit Contracts, Moral Hazard, and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 301-307, May.
    20. Bover, Olympia & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1989. "Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 97-136, March.
    21. McCallum, John, 1983. "Inflation and Social Consensus in the Seventies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 784-805, December.
    22. Rafael Di Tella & Robert J. MacCulloch, 2002. "The Determination of Unemployment Benefits," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 404-434, Part.
    23. Anders Bj�rklund, 1985. "Unemployment and Mental Health: Some Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(4), pages 469-483.
    24. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    25. Hughes, Gordon & McCormick, Barry, 1981. "Do Council Housing Policies Reduce Migration between Regions?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(364), pages 919-937, December.
    26. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    27. Robert E. Hall, 1970. "Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 369-410.
    28. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    2. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027421, HAL.
    3. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "Global Shocks and Unemployment Adjustment," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0401, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    4. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy: Finland and New Zealand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    5. Karl Ove Moene & Michael Wallerstein, 1993. "The Economic Performance of Different Bargaining Institutions," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 19(4), pages 423-450.
    6. Franz, Wolfgang, 1995. "Theoretische Ansätze zur Erklärung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Wo stehen wir 1995?," Discussion Papers 27, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    7. Salvatore D'Acunto, 2003. "Efficienza microeconomica versus efficienza "sistemica"? Note in margine al Libro Bianco del Ministero del Lavoro," Stato e mercato, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 287-312.
    8. repec:clr:wugarc:y:1993:v:19i:4p:423 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Aidt, T.S. & Tzannatos, Z., 2005. "The Cost and Benefits of Collective Bargaining," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0541, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Patrick Minford & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Vicious And Virtuous Circles – The Political Economy Of Unemployment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 1-22, March.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1905 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dohmen, Thomas J., 2005. "Housing, mobility and unemployment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 305-325, May.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1905 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bhalotra, Sonia., 2003. "The impact of economic liberalization on employment and wages in India," ILO Working Papers 993650543402676, International Labour Organization.
    15. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy : Finland and New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1905 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2007. "The Relationship Between Capital Stock, Unemployment And Wages In Nine Emu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 125-148, April.
    18. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998. "Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June.
    19. Di Tella, Rafael & MacCulloch, Robert, 2006. "Europe vs America: Institutional hysteresis in a simple normative model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2161-2186, December.
    20. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre. Discussion théorique et évaluation empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 205-244.
    21. Kilponen, Juha & Mayes, David & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Labour Market Flexibility in Northern Europe," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa088, European Regional Science Association.
    22. Bianchi, Marco & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "Challenges facing natural rate theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 535-547, April.
    23. Wouter Vermeulen & Jos Van Ommeren, 2005. "Are workers compensated by cheaper housing in regions where unemployment is high? Theory and evidence from a housing demand survey," ERSA conference papers ersa05p204, European Regional Science Association.
    24. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1903 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. repec:ilo:ilowps:365054 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.