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The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis

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  • Manuela Goretti

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

This paper investigates the main sources of instability in Brazil during the currency and financial distress episode of 2002. We test for financial contagion from the Argentine crisis and the impact of factors including IMF intervention and political uncertainty in raising the probability of crisis. The empirical investigation employs a Markov switching model with endogenous transition probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Finance 0506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0506001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
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    Cited by:

    1. Sumru Altug & Cem Cakmakli, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1413, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "The politics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(3Q), pages 291-317.
    3. Scholl, Almuth, 2017. "The dynamics of sovereign default risk and political turnover," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 37-53.
    4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
    5. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2021. "Strength of words: Donald Trump's tweets, sanctions and Russia's ruble," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 253-277.
    6. Scholl, Almuth, 2024. "The politics of redistribution and sovereign default," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Prein, Timm M. & Scholl, Almuth, 2021. "The impact of bailouts on political turnover and sovereign default risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Lima, Eduardo J.A., 2009. "Market efficiency of Brazilian exchange rate: Evidence from variance ratio statistics and technical trading rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(3), pages 814-820, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; contagion; financial crises; IMF intervention; Markov switching model; political uncertainty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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