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The politics of sovereign defaults

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  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo
  • Leonardo Martinez

Abstract

In this article, we study the interplay between political factors and default decisions. First, we survey two branches of theoretical studies. One shows that governments may be willing to repay their debt because it is in the best interest of local agents with political power. The other one discusses how political turnover affects sovereign default risk. Second, we describe a large body of empirical studies that find evidence of the influence of political stability and other characteristics of a political system on default risk. Finally, we examine the role of political factors in five recent default episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "The politics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 96(3Q), pages 291-317.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2010:i:3q:p:291-317:n:v.96no.3
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    Cited by:

    1. Azzimonti, Marina & Mitra, Nirvana, 2023. "Political constraints and sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Christoph Trebesch, 2019. "Resolving sovereign debt crises: the role of political risk," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 421-444.
    3. Yong Kyun Kim, 2017. "Inequality and Sovereign Default under Democracy," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 1(1), pages 81-115.
    4. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Eyigungor, Burcu, 2019. "Endogenous political turnover and fluctuations in sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 37-50.
    5. Farzana Alamgir & Alok Johri, 2022. "International Sovereign Spread Differences and the Poverty of Nations," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022-06, McMaster University.
    6. Scholl, Almuth, 2017. "The dynamics of sovereign default risk and political turnover," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 37-53.
    7. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michal Szkup, 2022. "Preventing Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Global Games Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 22-55, January.
    9. Andreasen, Eugenia & Sandleris, Guido & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2019. "The political economy of sovereign defaults," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 23-36.
    10. Azzimonti, Marina & Battaglini, Marco & Coate, Stephen, 2016. "The costs and benefits of balanced budget rules: Lessons from a political economy model of fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 45-61.
    11. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo, 2013. "The political economy of balanced budget amendments," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 11-20.
    12. Juan Hatchondo & Francisco Roch & Leonardo Martinez, 2019. "Constrained efficient borrowing with sovereign default risk," 2019 Meeting Papers 899, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Eric M. Leeper, 2015. "Fiscal Analysis is Darned Hard," CAEPR Working Papers 2015-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    14. Jørgen Bølstad & Christoph Elhardt, 2015. "To bail out or not to bail out? Crisis politics, credibility, and default risk in the Eurozone," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(3), pages 325-346, September.
    15. Antonis Adam & Kostas Karanatsis, 2019. "Sovereign Defaults and Democracy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 36-62, March.
    16. Prein, Timm M. & Scholl, Almuth, 2021. "The impact of bailouts on political turnover and sovereign default risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Mitra, Nirvana, 2020. "Political Constraints and Sovereign Default Premia," MPRA Paper 104172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Staffa, Ruben Marek & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "Fiscal policy under the eyes of wary bondholders," IWH Discussion Papers 26/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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