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Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Agnello
  • Gilles Dufrénot

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

This paper tests for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the US fiscal policy. By modeling government spending and taxes as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS), we find that taxes significantly adjust in a nonlinear fashion to asset prices. In particular, taxes respond to housing and (to a smaller extent) to stock price changes during normal times. However, at periods characterized by high financial volatility, government taxation only counteracts stock market developments (and not the dynamics of the housing sector). As for government spending, it is neutral vis-a-vis the asset market cycles. We conclude that, correcting the fiscal balance and, notably, the revenue side for time-varying effects of asset prices provides a more accurate assessment of the fiscal stance and its sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Post-Print hal-01498264, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01498264
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.11.054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 358-362.
    3. BUI, Duy-Tung & LLORCA, Matthieu & BUI, Thi Mai Hoai, 2018. "Dynamics between stock market movements and fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from emerging Asian economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 65-74.
    4. Morad, Shahidah Nailul & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Islamic REIT response to macroeconomic factors: a markov regime switching auto regressive approach," MPRA Paper 65237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Abdul Rahman & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2024. "Role of consistent regime-specific policies in recovering the negative relationship between financial development and economic growth," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-27, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset prices; Fiscal policy; Markov; probability; process; Time-varying; Time-varying transition probability Markov process; transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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