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A note on the modelling of hyper-inflations

Author

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  • Evens SALIES

    (University of Perpignan & of Paris 1 - Panthéon Sorbonne)

  • Peter MOFFATT

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

In time series macroeconometric models, the first difference in the logarithm of a variable is routinely used to represent the rate of change of that variable. It is often overlooked that the assumed approximation is accurate only if the rates of change are small. Models of hyper-inflation are a case in point, since in these models, by definition, changes in price are large. In this letter, Cagan’s model is applied to Hungarian hyper-inflation data. It is then demonstrated that use of the approximation in the formation of the price inflation variable is causing an upward bias in the model’s key parameter, and therefore an exaggeration of the effect postulated by Cagan.

Suggested Citation

  • Evens SALIES & Peter MOFFATT, 2004. "A note on the modelling of hyper-inflations," Econometrics 0406002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0406002
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-351, August.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    3. Salemi, Michael K., 1979. "Adaptive expectations, rational expectations, and money demand in hyperinflation Germany," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 593-604, October.
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    2. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cagan's model; Model Specification;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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