IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eas/journl/v7y2016i7p50-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economical Expectation Theories with Quantitative Aspects: Case of Turkey and Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Özcan

    (Gazi Üniversitesi)

Abstract

Studies on the impact of individuals’ expectations about future on macroeconomic analysis are one of the significant subjects of economics. With the experiences obtained from each economic fluctuations, the economic expectation of the societies and the theories that explain those expectations come up again. Building expectation theories and measuring economic expectations of the societies become possible with the increasing importance of quantitative analysis in Economics. In this study, Adaptive Expectation and Rational Expectation theories are examined as a part of The Cagan Inflation Model; in Turkey and Kazakhstan, the effects of inflation expectations on Money demand are analyzed according to the Econometric terms. The findings indicate that inflation expectations in Turkey are adapted faster than in Kazakhstan and the findings also point out the importance of the controlling money supply for the struggling against inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Özcan, 2016. "Economical Expectation Theories with Quantitative Aspects: Case of Turkey and Kazakhstan," Eurasian Academy Of Sciences Social Sciences Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 7(7), pages 50-73, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eas:journl:v:7:y:2016:i:7:p:50-73
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socialsciences.eurasianacademy.org/dergi/../dergi//kantitatif-yonleri-ile-iktisadi-beklenti-teorileri-turkiye-ve-kazakistan-ornegi201601.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zellner, Arnold & Geisel, Martin S, 1970. "Analysis of Distributed Lag Models with Application to Consumption Function Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(6), pages 865-888, November.
    2. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-351, August.
    4. Salemi, Michael K & Sargent, Thomas J, 1979. "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: II," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 741-758, October.
    5. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    6. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    7. Marjan Petreski, 2012. "Output Volatility and Exchange Rate Considerations Under Inflation Targeting : A Review," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 528-537.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Phylaktis, Kate & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 32-37, February.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    12. Shaw, Graham K, 1987. "Rational Expectations," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 187-209, July.
    13. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2000. "A Multivariate I(2) Cointegration Analysis Of German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 0001, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 00 Jul 2001.
    2. Rolando Gonzales Martínez, 2013. "Modeling Hyperinflation Phenomenon: A Bayesian Approach," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 8, CEMLA.
    3. Mark A. Hooker, 1997. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
    5. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2003. "Stock market volatility and the US consumer expenditure," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 367-385, September.
    6. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    7. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    8. Helmut Herwartz & Henning Weber, 2005. "Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth—a comparison of linear and non‐linear (forecasting) models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
    10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
    11. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo.
    12. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Multicointegration in US consumption data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 819-833.
    13. Deleau Michel & Le Van Cuong & Malgrange Pierre, 1987. "Long terme des modèles macroéconométriques (le)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8729, CEPREMAP.
    14. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:43:y:2012:i:5:p:5-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ang, James B., 2008. "What are the mechanisms linking financial development and economic growth in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 38-53, January.
    16. Luca Benati, 2018. "Cagan s Paradox Revisited," Diskussionsschriften dp1826, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    17. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    18. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    20. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eas:journl:v:7:y:2016:i:7:p:50-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kutluk Kagan Sumer (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://socialsciences.eurasianacademy.org/eng/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.