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A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Janine Aron

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

  • John Muellbauer

    (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)

  • Benjamin Smit

    (Bureau of Economic Research, Stellenbosch University)

Abstract

We build a 4-equation model of the inflation process in South Africa (which has recently adopted inflation targeting), including the exchange rate, consumer prices, producer price, and import prices. This provides useful information on the speed and extent of exchange rate pass- through, and illuminates the various channels through which monetary policy influences inflation. The model is in the tradition of central bank models of the inflation process, but carefully tests for asymmetries, structural breaks and expectations effects, and applies a range of econometric tests and methods to refute the charge that such models necessarily impose ‘incredible’ restrictions, Sims (1980).

Suggested Citation

  • Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Schaling, Eric & Some, Modeste, 2015. "Monetary policy and heterogeneous inflation expectations in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 109-117.
    2. Johannes Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2018. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(2), pages 197-230, June.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(5), pages 705-744, November.
    4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Inflation dynamics and trade openness: with an application to South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Muellbauer, John & Aron, Janine, 2006. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5831, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2008. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Unemployment in a Large Relative Price Shocks' Economy: the Brazilian Case," Working Papers Series 163, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Lawrence, 2008. "South African trade policy matters Trade performance and trade policy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 585-608, October.
    8. Kevin S. Nell, 2006. "Structural Change And Nonlinearities In A Phillips Curve Model For South Africa," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 600-617, October.
    9. Lawrence Edwards & Robert Lawrence, 2006. "South African Trade Policy Matters: Trade Performance & Trade Policy," Growth Lab Working Papers 14m, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    10. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(5), pages 705-744, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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