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The macroeconomic effects of international uncertainty shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Florian Huber

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Luca Onorante

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

We propose a large-scale Bayesian VAR model with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks on the G7 countries. The factor structure enables us to identify an international uncertainty shock by assuming that it is the factor most correlated with forecast errors related to equity markets and permits fast sampling of the model. Our findings suggest that the estimated uncertainty factor is strongly related to global equity price volatility, closely tracking other prominent measures commonly adopted to assess global uncertainty. The dynamic responses of a set of macroeconomic and financial variables show that an international uncertainty shock exerts a powerful effect on all economies and variables under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Florian Huber & Luca Onorante, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of international uncertainty shocks," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp245, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp245
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    Cited by:

    1. Niko Hauzenberger & Maximilian Böck & Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer & Gregor Zens, 2018. "Implications of Macroeconomic Volatility in the Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp261, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
    3. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 273-293, April.
    4. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty," IREA Working Papers 202011, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    5. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2018. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2179, European Central Bank.
    6. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
    7. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    8. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor stochastic volatility; vector autoregressive models; global propagation of shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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