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Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue in the EU

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  • Ant??nio Afonso
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

Using bootstrap panel analysis, allowing for cross-country correlation, without the need of pre-testing for unit roots, we study the causality between government revenue and spending for the EU in the period 1960-2006. Spend-and-tax causality is found for Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and Portugal, while tax-and-spend evidence is present for Germany, Belgium, Austria, Finland and the UK, and for several EU New Member States.

Suggested Citation

  • Ant??nio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue in the EU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp944, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
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    Cited by:

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    3. A. Phiri, 2019. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: new evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1515-1547, May.
    4. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Robert & Sova, Anamaria, 2012. "Environmental Regulation and Competitiveness: Evidence from Romania," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 130-139.
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    6. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji, 2014. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus (with an application to Iran's sanctions)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 299-313.
    7. Fuad M.M Kreishan & Mohamed Sayed Abou Elseoud & Mohammad Selim, 2018. "Oil Revenue and State Budget Dynamic Relationship: Evidence from Bahrain," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 174-179.
    8. Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Lin-Na Hao, 2020. "Urbanization and carbon emission: causality evidence from the new industrialized economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7193-7213, December.
    9. Temel Gurdal & Mucahit Aydin & Veysel Inal, 2021. "The relationship between tax revenue, government expenditure, and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 305-337, May.
    10. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    11. Sarah El-Khishin & Jailan El-Saeed, 2021. "The Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Do Geopolitics Matter?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-17, September.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo.
    13. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2022. "The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    14. Salebu, Jefry Batara, 2014. "Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia: Analisis Data Panel Periode 1994-2013 [The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Indonesian Economic Growth: Panel Data an," MPRA Paper 72830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Oyeyinka OMOSHORO-JONES, 2020. "Investigating The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence For The Free State Province In A Multivariate Model," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 138-156.
    16. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄ Ã¡ková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.
    17. Takumah, Wisdom, 2014. "The Dynamic Causal Relationship between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure Nexus in Ghana," MPRA Paper 58579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alina Klonowska & Barbara Pawełek, 2022. "What we know and what we do not know about social security finance and macroeconomic stabilization? Evidence from EU countries," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 4, pages 455-483.
    19. Yousef Elyasi & Mohammad Rahimi, 2012. "The Causality between Government Revenue and Government Expenditure in Iran," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 5(1), pages 129-145, April.
    20. Cagri Esener & Brigitte Granville & Roman Matousek, 2022. "Choosing the Optimal Tool for Fiscal Adjustment or Living under Fiscal Constraints: Panel Evidence from Selected OECD Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 2-29, June.
    21. Obeng, Samuel, 2015. "A Causality Test of the Revenue-Expenditure Nexus in Ghana," MPRA Paper 63735, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 2015.
    22. Olumuyiwa Ganiyu Yinusa & Olalekan Bashir Aworinde & Isiaq Olasunkanmi Oseni, 2017. "The Revenue-Expenditure Nexus in Nigeria: Assymetric Cointegration Approach," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 15(1), pages 47-61.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    panel causality; fiscal policy; EU.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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