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Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal

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Abstract

Drawing on quarterly data for Portugal, we use a Three-Stage Least Square method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy - responsiveness and persistence - and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). The results suggest that: (i) government spending exhibits higher persistence than government revenue; and (ii) government revenue is more responsive to the business cycle than government spending.

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  • Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2009. "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal," NIPE Working Papers 1/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:1/2009
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    3. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
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    8. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Bastos & Natália P. Monteiro, 2011. "Managers and Wage Policies," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 957-984, December.
    2. António Afonso, & Jorge Caiado, & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2015. "The macro impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court decisions regarding the budgetary proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/06, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Gerrit B. Koester & Christoph Priesmeier, 2013. "Does Wagner´s Law Ruin the Sustainability of German Public Finances?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 69(3), pages 256-288, September.
    4. Adnan Habib & Jamshaid Rehman & Tasneem Zafar & Haider Mahmood, 2016. "Does sustainability hypothesis hold in developed countries? A panel co-integration analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Umoh, O. J. & Onye, Kenneth U. & Atan, Johnson A., 2018. "Political and Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Policy Persistence in West Africa," MPRA Paper 88452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal deterioration; Portugal.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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