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Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report

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  • Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel
  • Jooste,Charl

Abstract

This paper proposes a leading indicator, the "Google Mobility Index," for nowcasting monthly industrial production growth rates in selected economies in Latin America and the Caribbean. The index is constructed using the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report database via a Kalman filter. The Google database is publicly available starting from February 15, 2020. The paper uses a backcasting methodology to increase the historical number of observations and then augments a lag of one week in the mobility data with other high-frequency data (air quality) over January 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020. Finally, mixed data sampling regression is implemented for nowcasting industrial production growth rates. The Google Mobility Index is a good predictor of industrial production. The results suggest a significant decline in output of between 5 and 7 percent for March and April, respectively, while indicating a trough in output in mid-April.

Suggested Citation

  • Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Jooste,Charl, 2020. "Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9247, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Steven J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 32-67, March.
    2. Kaustubh & Soumya Bhadury & Saurabh Ghosh, 2024. "Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Postpandemic Period: A Case Study For India," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(Spesial I), pages 95-130, Februari.
    3. Yose Rizal Damuri & Prabaning Tyas & Haryo Aswicahyono & Lionel Priyadi & Stella Kusumawardhani & Ega Kurnia Yazid, 2021. "Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali," Working Papers DP-2021-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    4. Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2021. "Nowcasting Colombian Economic Activity: DFM and Factor-MIDAS approaches," Borradores de Economia 1168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Noel Rapa, 2021. "Mitigation measures, prevalence response and public mobility during the COVID-19 emergency," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2021, Central Bank of Malta.
    6. Joshua Rosenberg & Ilan Strauss & Gilad Isaacs, 2021. "COVID‐19 impact on SADC labour markets: Evidence from high‐frequency data and other sources," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 177-193, April.
    7. Velias, Alina & Georganas, Sotiris & Vandoros, Sotiris, 2022. "COVID-19: Early evening curfews and mobility," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Chakrabarty, Debajyoti & Bhatia, Bhanu & Jayasinghe, Maneka & Low, David, 2023. "Relative deprivation, inequality and the Covid-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    9. Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Longmei Zhang, 2021. "The effects of COVID‐19 containment measures on the Asia‐Pacific region," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 469-497, October.
    10. Mantas Lukauskas & Vaida Pilinkienė & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Alina Stundžienė & Andrius Grybauskas & Tomas Ruzgas, 2022. "Economic Activity Forecasting Based on the Sentiment Analysis of News," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor & Kecht, Valentin & Le Blanc, Julia & Onorante, Luca, 2024. "The economic impact of general vs. targeted lockdowns: New insights from Italian municipalities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Emily Schmidt & Paul Dorosh & Rachel Gilbert, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 induced income and rice price shocks on household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Household model estimates," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 391-406, May.
    13. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Performance of long short-term memory artificial neural networks in nowcasting during the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2203.11872, arXiv.org.
    14. João Tovar Jalles & Bryn Battersby & Rachel Lee, 2024. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 623-658, July.

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    Keywords

    International Trade and Trade Rules; Health Care Services Industry; Pharmaceuticals Industry; ICT Policy and Strategies; ICT Legal and Regulatory Framework; Economic Conditions and Volatility;
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