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Is extreme poverty going to end ? an analytical framework to evaluate progress in ending extreme poverty

Author

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  • Yoshida, Nobuo
  • Uematsu, Hiroki
  • Sobrado, Carlos E.

Abstract

The World Bank has recently adopted a target of reducing the proportion of population living below US$1.25 a day at 2005 international prices to 3 percent by 2030. This paper reviews different projection methods and estimates the global poverty rate of 2030 modifying Ravallion (2013)'s approach in that it introduces country-specific economic and population growth rates and takes into account the effect of changes in within-country inequality. This paper then identifies key obstacles to meeting the target and proposes a simple intermediate growth target under which the global poverty rate can be reduced to 3 percent by 2030. The findings of the analysis lend support to Basu (2013)'s argument that accelerating growth is not enough and sharing prosperity within and across countries is essential to end extreme poverty in one generation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshida, Nobuo & Uematsu, Hiroki & Sobrado, Carlos E., 2014. "Is extreme poverty going to end ? an analytical framework to evaluate progress in ending extreme poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6740, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6740
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2013. "More Relatively-Poor People in a Less Absolutely-Poor World," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(1), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Planning Commission, 2013. "Press Note on Poverty Estimates, 2011-12," Working Papers id:5421, eSocialSciences.
    3. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale, Location and Cost," Working Papers 111, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    4. Martin Ravallion, 2013. "How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 139-158, August.
    5. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010. "The Developing World is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625.
    6. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale and Location, 2010–2030," Working Papers 327, Center for Global Development.
    7. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Future of Global Poverty," One Pager 204, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    8. Dhongde, Shatakshee & Minoiu, Camelia, 2013. "Global Poverty Estimates: A Sensitivity Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Aura-t-on éliminé l’extrême pauvreté dans le monde en 2030 ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-01-15 00:58:00
    2. Comment réduire la pauvreté dans un monde plus riche ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-09 04:34:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Insurance and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Policy Thresholds," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/005, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Anderson, Edward & d'Orey, Maria Ana Jalles & Duvendack, Maren & Esposito, Lucio, 2018. "Does Government Spending Affect Income Poverty? A Meta-regression Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 60-71.
    4. Ncube, Mthuli & Brixiova Schwidrowski, Zuzana & Bicaba, Zorobabel, 2014. "Can Dreams Come True? Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa by 2030," IZA Discussion Papers 8120, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Crombrugghe, D.P.I. de & Szirmai, A. & Bluhm, R., 2014. "Poor trends: The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda," MERIT Working Papers 2014-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Heshmati, Almas & Kim, Jungsuk, 2014. "A Survey of the Role of Fiscal Policy in Addressing Income Inequality, Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 8119, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Md Nazirul Islam Sarker* & Md Altab Hossin & Wu Min & Md Aktaruzzaman, 2018. "Poverty Alleviation of Rural People through Good Governance in Bangladesh," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(12), pages 547-555, 12-2018.
    8. Agnieszka Majewska & Urszula Gierałtowska, 2022. "Impact of Economic Affluence on CO 2 Emissions in CEE Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Sudarno SUMARTO & Sarah MOSELLE, 2015. "Addressing Poverty and Vulnerability in ASEAN: An Analysis of Measures and Implications Going Forward," Working Papers DP-2015-63, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    10. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2016. "Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa: Trends, Policies and the Role of International Organizations," SALDRU Working Papers 170, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.

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