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Poor trends: The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda

Author

Listed:
  • Crombrugghe, D.P.I. de

    (SBE, Maastricht University)

  • Szirmai, A.

    (UNU-MERIT)

  • Bluhm, R.

    (UNU-MERIT)

Abstract

We review the origins of the dollar-a-day poverty line, discuss historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction at 1.25 a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a poverty rate of 8-9 in 2030, far short of the World Banks new 3 target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2 a day, with an additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Crombrugghe, D.P.I. de & Szirmai, A. & Bluhm, R., 2014. "Poor trends: The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda," MERIT Working Papers 2014-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2014006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Naude, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2015. "Industrialisation, Innovation, Inclusion," MERIT Working Papers 2015-043, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Nanak Kakwani & Hyun H. Son, 2016. "Global poverty estimates based on 2011 purchasing power parity: where should the new poverty line be drawn?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(2), pages 173-184, June.
    3. Nanak Kakwani & Hyun H. Son, 2015. "Global poverty estimates based on 2011 purchasing power parity: Where should the new poverty line be drawn?," Working Papers 371, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty; inequality; poverty reduction; consumption growth; MDGs; dollar-a-day;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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