IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3804.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Jensen, Henning Tarp
  • Verghis, Mathew
  • Yeldan, Erinc

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Verghis, Mathew & Yeldan, Erinc, 2006. "Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3804, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2006/01/09/000016406_20060109155202/Rendered/PDF/wps3804.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 493-509, November.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ceyhun ELGİN & Tolga Umut KUZUBAŞ, 2012. "Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 09-31.
    2. Pierre Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0616, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter Montiel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 423-455, September.
    4. repec:ilo:ilowps:467426 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dario DEBOWICZ, 2010. "Real Financial Models in Argentina," EcoMod2010 259600044, EcoMod.
    6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter J. Montiel, 2006. "Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Part I: Fixed Exchange Rates," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 76, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. A. Erinc Yeldan, 2017. "Turkey’s employment subsidy program under the great recession: a general equilibrium assessment," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 225-254, March.
    8. Erinç Yeldan, 2013. "The Turkish experience with work-sharing policy during the global economic crisis, 2008–2010," Chapters, in: Jon C. Messenger & Naj Ghosheh (ed.), Work Sharing during the Great Recession, chapter 5, pages 119-150, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Angel-Urdinola, Diego F. & Haimovich, Francisco & Robayo, Monica, 2009. "Is Social Assistance Contributing to Higher Informality in Turkey?," MPRA Paper 27675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Zapodeanu Daniela & Gavris Natalia & Leac Dafina Roxana & Teudan Ana - Maria, 2011. "A Liniar Model Of Analyzing Inflation In Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey And Croatia," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 445-451, December.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2005. "Unemployment-Poverty Tradeoffs," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Jorge Restrepo & Andrea Tokman R. & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edi (ed.),Labor Markets and Institutions, edition 1, volume 8, chapter 5, pages 115-165, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. repec:ilo:ilowps:463375 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2006. "Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Fluctuations under Pegged Exchange Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 579-604, November.
    14. Mathieu Dufour & Ozgur Orhangazi, 2009. "The 2000-2001 Financial Crisis in Turkey: A Crisis for Whom?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 101-122.
    15. Yeldan, Erinç. & Ercan, Hakan., 2011. "Growth, employment policies and economic linkages : Turkey," ILO Working Papers 994633753402676, International Labour Organization.
    16. Yeldan, Erinc., 2011. "Macroeconomics of growth and employment : the case of Turkey," ILO Working Papers 994674263402676, International Labour Organization.
    17. Telli, Çagatay & Voyvoda, Ebru & Yeldan, Erinç, 2008. "Economics of environmental policy in Turkey: A general equilibrium investigation of the economic evaluation of sectoral emission reduction policies for climate change," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 321-340.
    18. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2005. "The Macroeconomics Of Poverty Reduction," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 369-434, July.
    19. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The University of Manchester.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    2. Erdem Basci & Özgür Özel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: new developments," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 475-499, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Jérôme Creel & Günes Kamber, 2004. "Debt, deficits and inflation on the road to the EU: the case of Turkey," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 157-174.
    4. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Özatay, 2008. "Inflation Targeting in Turkey," Working Papers 445, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    5. Fatih …zatay, 2007. "Monetary Policy Challenges for Turkey in the European Union Accession Process," Chapters, in: Erdem Başçı & Sübidey Togan & Jürgen von Hagen (ed.), Macroeconomic Policies for EU Accession, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 33133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Aytac, Ozlem, 2015. "A model of a heterodox exchange rate based stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-117.
    8. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    9. Cavalcanti, Marco A.F.H. & Vereda, Luciano & Doctors, Rebeca de B. & Lima, Felipe C. & Maynard, Lucas, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks under fiscal rules constrained by public debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 184-201.
    10. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    11. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    12. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Stefano Ugolini, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: Lessons from Early-Modern Venice," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23205, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    14. Moreira, Tito Belchior S., 2011. "Brazil: an empirical study on fiscal policy transmission," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    15. Cowan, Kevin, 2006. "Comment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123403, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 2005/226, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Cerqueira, Vinícius Dos Santos & Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno & Martinez, Thiago Sevilhano, 2014. "Propagação Assimétrica de Choques Monetários na Economia Brasileira: Evidências com base em um modelo vetorial não-linear de transição suave," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    19. Vladimir Teles & Joaquim Andrade, 2008. "Monetary policy and country risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(15), pages 2021-2028.
    20. Aizenman, J. & Jinjarak, Y. & Park, D. & Zheng, H., 2021. "Good-bye original sin, hello risk on-off, financial fragility, and crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Economic Stabilization;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3804. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.