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Monetary policy and country risk

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  • Teles, Vladimir Kühl
  • Andrade, Joaquim Pinto de

Abstract

This article develops an econometric model in order to study country risk behavior for six emerging economies (Argentina, Mexico, Russia, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia), by expanding the Country Beta Risk Model of Harvey and Zhou (1993), Erb et. al. (1996a, 1996b) and Gangemi et. al. (2000). Toward this end, we have analyzed the impact of macroeconomic variables, especially monetary policy, upon country risk, by way of a time varying parameter approach. The results indicate an inefficient and unstable effect of monetary policy upon country risk in periods of crisis. However, this effect is stable in other periods, and the Favero-Giavazzi effect is not verified for all economies, with an opposite effect being observed in many cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Teles, Vladimir Kühl & Andrade, Joaquim Pinto de, 2010. "Monetary policy and country risk," Textos para discussão 223, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:223
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    1. Evan Tanner & Alberto Ramos, 2003. "Fiscal sustainability and monetary versus fiscal dominance: evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 859-873.
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