IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10368.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Past and Future of RegionalPotential Growth : Hopes, Fears, and Realities

Author

Listed:
  • Kasyanenko,Sergiy
  • Kenworthy,Philip George
  • Kilic Celik,Sinem
  • Ruch,Franz Ulrich
  • Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T.
  • Wheeler,Collette Mari

Abstract

Potential growth slowed in most emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) regions in thepast decade. The steepest slowdown occurred in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA), followed by East Asia and thePacific (EAP), although potential growth in EAP remained one of the two highest among EMDE regions, the other being SouthAsia (SAR), where potential growth remained broadly unchanged. Projections of the fundamental drivers of growthsuggest that, without reforms, potential growth in EMDEs will continue to weaken over the remainder of this decade.The slowdown will be most pronounced in EAP and Europe and Central Asia because of slowing labor force growth and weakinvestment, and least pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa where the multiple adverse shocks over the past decade are assumedto dissipate going forward. Potential growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, MNA, and SAR is expected to bebroadly steady as slowing population growth is offset by strengthening productivity. The projected declines inpotential growth are not inevitable. Many EMDEs could lift potential growth by implementing reforms, with policypriorities varying across regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kasyanenko,Sergiy & Kenworthy,Philip George & Kilic Celik,Sinem & Ruch,Franz Ulrich & Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T. & Wheeler,Collette Mari, 2023. "The Past and Future of RegionalPotential Growth : Hopes, Fears, and Realities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10368, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10368
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099526403162313663/pdf/IDU0c4dda37c03d960446c09eb30112c481152dc.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vilas Pathikonda & Thomas Farole, 2017. "The Capabilities Driving Participation in Global Value Chains," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    3. Y N Raju & Debashis Acharya & Aviral Tiwari, 2020. "Revisiting the Volatility- Growth relationship: Some cross country evidence, 1978–2017," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1826655-182, January.
    4. Havrylyshyn, Oli, 1990. "Trade Policy and Productivity Gains in Developing Countries: A Survey of the Literature," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Maria Marta Ferreyra & Mark Roberts, 2018. "Raising the Bar for Productive Cities in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 29279.
    6. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2017," World Bank Publications - Reports 28396, The World Bank Group.
    7. World Bank, "undated". "East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2017," World Bank Publications - Reports 26332, The World Bank Group.
    8. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2021," World Bank Publications - Reports 36295, The World Bank Group.
    9. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer, 2021. "COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 287-291, May.
    10. Rosa Forte & Rui Moura, 2013. "The Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment On The Host Country'S Economic Growth: Theory And Empirical Evidence," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(03), pages 1-28.
    11. Pattanaik, Sitikantha & Muduli, Silu & Jose, Jibin, 2022. "Zombies and the Process of Creative Destruction," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 76(2), pages 53-66.
    12. World Bank, 2022. "Living Up to Potential in the Wake of Adverse Shocks," World Bank Publications - Reports 37715, The World Bank Group.
    13. Beverelli, Cosimo & Fiorini, Matteo & Hoekman, Bernard, 2017. "Services trade policy and manufacturing productivity: The role of institutions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 166-182.
    14. Shantayanan Devarajan & Louis A. Kasekende, 2011. "Africa and the Global Economic Crisis: Impacts, Policy Responses and Political Economy," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 23(4), pages 421-438, December.
    15. Shantayanan Devarajan & Louis Kasekende, 2011. "Africa and the Global Economic Crisis: Impacts, Policy Responses and Political Economy," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 23(4), pages 421-438.
    16. repec:imf:imfdep:2018/018 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. World Bank, "undated". "South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2021," World Bank Publications - Reports 35274, The World Bank Group.
    18. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update - Spring 2022," World Bank Publications - Reports 37097, The World Bank Group.
    19. Keefer, Philip & Scartascini, Carlos, 2022. "Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 11771, December.
    20. Robero Alvarez & Matteo Grazzi, 2018. "Innovation and entrepreneurship in Latin America: What do we know? What would we like to know?," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 157-171, December.
    21. Roberta Gatti & Matteo Morgandi & Rebekka Grun & Stefanie Brodmann & Diego Angel-Urdinola & Juan Manuel Moreno & Daniela Marotta & Marc Schiffbauer & Elizabeth Mata Lorenzo, 2013. "Jobs for Shared Prosperity : Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13284.
    22. J. Kemp & B. Smit, 2016. "Estimating and Explaining Changes in Potential Growth in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 21-38, December.
    23. Trejos, Sandra & Barboza, Gustavo, 2015. "Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 110-125.
    24. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34497, The World Bank Group.
    25. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett & Nayef A. Alsadoun, 2017. "Estimating the Output Gap for Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 81-90, March.
    26. World Bank, "undated". "Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2022," World Bank Publications - Reports 37268, The World Bank Group.
    27. World Bank, "undated". "Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2022," World Bank Publications - Reports 38098, The World Bank Group.
    28. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2018. "Sectoral Productivity Growth and Poverty Reduction: National and Global Impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 429-439.
    29. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2021," World Bank Publications - Reports 35272, The World Bank Group.
    30. Mr. Emre Alper & Sidra Rehman & Siddharth Kothari & Aidar Abdychev & Preya Sharma & Cristian Alonso & Yun Liu & Mathilde Perinet & Mr. Dominique Desruelle & Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2018. "The Future of Work in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2018/018, International Monetary Fund.
    31. João Pedro & Amer Hasan & Diana Goldemberg & Koen Geven & Syedah Aroob Iqbal, 2021. "Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates [Tackling Inequity in Education during and after COVID-19]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 1-40.
    32. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33477, The World Bank Group.
    33. Barro, Robert J, 2000. "Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
    34. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2022," World Bank Publications - Reports 38053, The World Bank Group.
    35. Ramos E. Mabugu & Witness Simbanegavi, 2015. "Tax and Expenditure Reforms in Africa: An Overview," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(suppl_2), pages 3-15.
    36. Lucas Dutra de Paulo & Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade Lima & Robson Tigre, 2022. "Corruption and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 756-773, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sinem Kilic Celik & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards and Policies," CAMA Working Papers 2023-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Chau Le & Huyen Nguyen & Duc Vo, 2024. "Global liquidity spillovers in the Asia–Pacific region: policy-driven versus market-driven effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 1091-1113, September.
    3. Jo Blanden & Matthias Doepke & Jan Stuhler, 2022. "Education inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp1849, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Dirk J. Steenbergen & Hampus Eriksson & Kimberley Hunnam & David J. Mills & Natasha Stacey, 2019. "Following the fish inland: understanding fish distribution networks for rural development and nutrition security," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1417-1432, December.
    5. Kraal, Diane, 2019. "Petroleum industry tax incentives and energy policy implications: A comparison between Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 212-222.
    6. Udechukwu Ojiako & Tinashe Manungo & Max Chipulu & Johnnie Johnson, 2013. "The Impact of Regulation on Risk Perception: Evidence from the Zimbabwean Banking Industry," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(3), pages 276-288, September.
    7. Ciaschi, Matías & Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna & Viollaz, Mariana, 2024. "Navigating Educational Disruptions: The Gender Divide in Parental Involvement and Children's Learning Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 16985, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Ms. Valerie Cerra & Mr. Ruy Lama & Norman Loayza, 2021. "Links Between Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2021/068, International Monetary Fund.
    9. World Bank, 2018. "Philippines Economic Update, April 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 29725, The World Bank Group.
    10. Viet-Ha T. Nguyen & Hong Kong Nguyen-To & Thu Trang Vuong & Manh Tung Ho & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2018. "How swelling debts give rise to a new type of politics in Vietnam," Working Papers CEB 18-026, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Natalia I. Doré & Aurora A. C. Teixeira, 2023. "Empirical Literature on Economic Growth, 1991–2020: Uncovering Extant Gaps and Avenues for Future Research," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(1), pages 7-37, January.
    12. Peter Wanke & Carlos P. Barros & Md. Abul Kalam Azad & Dercio Constantino, 2016. "The Development of the Mozambican Banking Sector and Strategic Fit of Mergers and Acquisitions: A Two†Stage DEA Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 444-461, December.
    13. World Bank, 2017. "Philippines Economic Update, October 2017," World Bank Publications - Reports 28561, The World Bank Group.
    14. Chuku Chuku & Anthony Simpasa & Jacob Oduor, 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Commodity Price Fluctuations in African Economies," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(4), pages 329-345, December.
    15. Grossmann, Volker, 2008. "Risky human capital investment, income distribution, and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 19-42, March.
    16. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross‐Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 351-408, July.
    17. Hannah Carver & Tracey Price & Danilo Falzon & Peter McCulloch & Tessa Parkes, 2022. "Stress and Wellbeing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Mixed-Methods Exploration of Frontline Homelessness Services Staff Experiences in Scotland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-20, March.
    18. Efobi, Uchenna & Asongu, Simplice & Okafor, Chinelo & Tchamyou, Vanessa & Tanankem, Belmondo, 2016. "Diaspora Remittance Inflow, Financial Development and the Industrialisation of Africa," MPRA Paper 76121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ghosh, sudeshna, 2017. "Education Attainment Forecasting and Economic Inequality United States," MPRA Paper 89712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Stefania Lovo & Gonzalo Varela, 2022. "Internationally Linked Firms and Productivity in Pakistan: A Look at the Top End of the Distribution," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 2110-2131, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.