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COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock

Author

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  • Barrero, Jose Maria

    (Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico)

  • Bloom, Nick
  • Davis, Steven J.
  • Meyer, Brent H.

Abstract

Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity of employees to work from home, and against those with a low capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent H., 2021. "COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock," SocArXiv c8wk7_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:c8wk7_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/c8wk7_v1
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