Estimating the Demand for Informal Public Transport : Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar

Informal public transport has been growing rapidly in many developing countries. Because urbaninfrastructure development tends to lag rapid population growth, informal public transport often meets the growinggap between demand and supply in urban mobility. Despite the rich literature primarily focused on formal transport modes,the informal transport sector is relatively unknown. This paper analyzes the demand behavior in the “informal” minibussector in Antananarivo, Madagascar, taking advantage of a recent user survey of thousands of people. It finds that thedemand for informal public transport is generally inelastic. Essentially, people have no other choice. While the timeelasticity is estimated at −0.02 to −0.05, the price elasticity is −0.05 to −0.06 for short-distance travelers,who may have alternative choices, such as motorcycle taxi or walking. Unlike formal public transportation, the demandalso increases with income. Regardless of income level, everyone uses minibuses. The estimated demand functionsindicate that people prefer safety and more flexibility in transit. The paper shows that combining these improvementsand fare adjustments, the informal transport sector can contribute to increasing people’s mobility and reducingtraffic congestion in the city.