Flourish or Fail? The Risky Reward of Elite High School Admission in Mexico City

Winning admission to an elite school both promises modest rewards and imposes substantial risks on many students. Using variation in school assignment generated by the allocation mechanism, we ï¬ nd that admission to a system of elite public high schools in Mexico City raises end-of-high school test scores by an average of 0.17 standard deviations for the marginal admittee. On the other hand, for these students admission increases the probability of high school dropout by 9.5 percentage points. Students with weaker middle school grades and whose commute is lengthened by admission experience a larger rise in dropout probability, suggesting that the additional dropout risk is a result of both higher academic rigor and greater opportunity costs of attendance.