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Sources of economic growth in Zambia: an empirical investigation

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  • Chirwa, Themba G
  • Odhiambo, Nicholas M

Abstract

In this paper, the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in Zambia are investigated using the recently developed ARDL bounds-testing approach. The study has been motivated by the unsustainable growth trends that Zambia has been experiencing in recent years. Our study finds that the key macroeconomic determinants that are significantly associated with economic growth in Zambia include, amongst others, investment, human capital development, government consumption, international trade and foreign aid. The study?s results reveal that in the short run, investment and human capital development are positively associated with economic growth, while government consumption, international trade and foreign aid are negatively associated with economic growth. However, in the long run, the study finds investment and human capital development to be positively associated with economic growth, while only foreign aid is negatively associated with economic growth. These results have significant policy implications. They imply that short-run economic policies should focus on creating incentives that attract investment and increase the quality of education, the effectiveness of government institutions, the promotion of international trade and the effectiveness of development aid. In the long run, development strategies should focus on attracting the accumulation of long-term investment, improving the quality of education and the effectiveness of development aid.

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  • Chirwa, Themba G & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2016. "Sources of economic growth in Zambia: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 20067, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uza:wpaper:20067
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    2. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    3. Themba Gilbert Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in the Euro Area: A Dynamic Panel ARDL Approach," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(3), pages 291-310, September.
    4. Kelvin Mulungu & John N. Ng’ombe, 2017. "Sources of Economic Growth in Zambia, 1970–2013: A Growth Accounting Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    6. Yu-Hsien Lin, 2022. "Determinants of Green Purchase Intention: The Roles of Green Enjoyment, Green Intrinsic Motivation, and Green Brand Love," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Rajesh Sharma & Pradeep Kautish & D. Suresh Kumar, 2018. "Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Determinants on Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Study," Vision, , vol. 22(4), pages 405-415, December.
    8. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "The impact of public debt service on economic growth: empirical evidence from Zambia," International Journal of Revenue Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 172-189.
    9. Mrutyunjaya SAHOO & Praveen SAHU, 2023. "Does the effectiveness of money supply and foreign direct investment determine the industrial growth performance in India?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(635), S), pages 83-102, Summer.
    10. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    11. Taderera, Christie & Runganga, Raynold & Mhaka, Simbarashe & Mishi, Syden, 2021. "Inflation, interest rate and economic growth nexuses in SACU countries," MPRA Paper 105419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chirwa, Themba G & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2018. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: New evidence from twelve countries," Working Papers 23508, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    13. Joydeb Sasmal & Ritwik Sasmal, 2020. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance: Alternative Measures of Sustainability in the Indian Context," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 780-799, June.
    14. Biswajit Maitra, 2018. "Investment in Physical, Human Capital, Economic Growth and Life Expectancy in Bangladesh," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 19(2), pages 251-269, September.
    15. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2020. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in Ghana: New Empirical Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 626-644, June.
    16. Bernard Sarpong & Edward Nketiah-Amponsah & Nkechi S. Owoo, 2020. "Health and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 328-347, April.
    17. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "The impact of debt service on economic growth:Empirical evidence from Zambia," Working Papers 25652, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Zambia; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models; Economic Growth;
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