IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aic/saebjn/v67y2020i3p291-310n170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in the Euro Area: A Dynamic Panel ARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Themba Gilbert Chirwa
  • Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth using panel data from 10 European Countries. Using a panel ARDL approach, the results show that public debt, government consumption, and the real exchange rate are negatively associated with economic growth both in the short- and long-run. Furthermore, investment and the real interest rate were found to be positively associated with economic growth both in the short- and long-run. Inflation and trade openness were found to have mixed results: both were negatively associated with economic growth in the long run while in the short run the relationship was positive and consistent across groups with a few exceptions. Second, the study results also showed that debt is nonlinear at the 70% threshold only in the long-run while in the short run the results were consistently negative and across groups. The study results have significant policy implications for the Stability and Growth Pact of the Euro area. It is recommended that member states should ensure fiscal sustainability by balancing their fiscal budgets to effectively reduce the accumulation of public debt as well as implementing structural reforms that will improve the efficiency of investment as well as macroeconomic stability. JEL Codes - C23, F34, F43, H63, N14

Suggested Citation

  • Themba Gilbert Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in the Euro Area: A Dynamic Panel ARDL Approach," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(3), pages 291-310, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:67:y:2020:i:3:p:291-310:n:170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://saeb.feaa.uaic.ro/index.php/saeb/article/view/1184
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    4. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    6. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    7. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    10. Galvao, Antonio F. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Sosa-Escudero, Walter & Wang, Liang, 2013. "Tests for skewness and kurtosis in the one-way error component model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 35-52.
    11. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    13. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Sources of Economic Growth in Zambia: An Empirical Investigation," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 275-290, April.
    14. Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Mr. Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/002, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    16. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    17. Dotsey, Michael, 1994. "Some unpleasant supply side arithmetic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 507-524, June.
    18. Caner, Mehmet & Grennes,Thomas & Koehler-Geib, Fritzi, 2010. "Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5391, The World Bank.
    19. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    20. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/249, International Monetary Fund.
    21. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447.
    22. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.
    23. Chirwa, Themba G. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2016. "What Drives Long-Run Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from South Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 429-456.
    24. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    25. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    26. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    27. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
    29. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    30. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oguzhan Bozatli & Seref Can Serin & Murat Demir, 2024. "The causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Yu HSING, 2020. "On the relationship between economic growth and government debt for Bulgaria. Test of the Reinhart-Rogoff hypothesis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 187-194, Winter.
    3. Mihaela Onofrei & Ionel Bostan & Bogdan Narcis Firtescu & Angela Roman & Valentina Diana Rusu, 2022. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in EU Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, October.
    4. Ndivhuho Eunice Ratombo & Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale, 2024. "Establishing the Effects of Internet Users on Inclusive Growth for the SADC Members States: Panel ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 316-329, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    3. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    5. Eibinger, Tobias & Deixelberger, Beate & Manner, Hans, 2024. "Panel data in environmental economics: Econometric issues and applications to IPAT models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Felix Fofana N¡¯Zue, 2020. "Is External Debt Hampering Growth in the ECOWAS Region?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 1-54, April.
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Omri, Anis, 2018. "Entrepreneurship, sectoral outputs and environmental improvement: International evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 46-55.
    9. Chirwa, Themba G & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2018. "The determinants of public debt in the Euro area: A panel ARDL approach," Working Papers 23509, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    10. Jesus Clemente & Carmen Marcuello & Antonio Montañes, 2012. "Government Social Spending and GDP: has there been a change in social policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2895-2905, August.
    11. Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "What do we know about fiscal sustainability across Indian states?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 307-321.
    12. Olivier Damette & Philippe Froute, 2010. "Is the crisis treatment exacerbating cautiousness or risk-taking?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 213-218.
    13. Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2016. "The political economy of public investment when population is aging: A panel cointegration analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 145-158.
    14. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Xuan-Binh (Benjamin) Vu & Son Nghiem, 2022. "Economic Growth in Six ASEAN Countries: Are Energy, Human Capital and Financial Development Playing Major Roles?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    15. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    16. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Liddle, Brantley & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I., 2018. "The impact of international trade on CO2 emissions in oil exporting countries: Territory vs consumption emissions accounting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 343-350.
    17. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.
    18. Mitch Kunce, 2023. "Unemployment and Suicide in the United States: The Import of Addressing Cross-Sectional Dependence," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19.
    19. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2016. "Do population age groups matter in the energy use of the oil-exporting countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 82-99.
    20. Dimitrios Asteriou & Keith Pilbeam & Cecilia Eny Pratiwi, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth: panel data evidence for Asian countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 270-287, April.
    21. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Area; Panel ARDL Models; Cointegration; Public Debt; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:67:y:2020:i:3:p:291-310:n:170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feaicro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.