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Estimation in Models of the Instantaneous Short Term Interest Rate By Use of a Dynamic Bayesian Algorithm

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Abstract

This paper considers the estimation in models of the instantaneous short interest rate from a new perspective. Rather than using discretely compounded market rates as a proxy for the instantaneous short rate of interest, we set up the stochastic dynamics for the discretely compounded market observed rates and propose a dynamic Bayesian estimation algorithm (i.e. a filtering algorithm) for a time-discretised version of the resulting interest rate dynamics. The filter solution is computed via a further spatial discretization (quantization) and the convergence of the latter to its continuous counterpart is discussed in detail. The method is applied to simulated data and is found to give a reasonable estimate of the conditional density function and to be not too demanding computationally.

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  • Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "Estimation in Models of the Instantaneous Short Term Interest Rate By Use of a Dynamic Bayesian Algorithm," Research Paper Series 68, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:68
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    File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp68.pdf
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    6. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Jiongmin Yong (ed.), Recent Developments In Mathematical Finance, chapter 12, pages 139-150, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Episcopos, Athanasios, 2000. "Further evidence on alternative continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 199-212, June.
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    11. Kees G. Koedijk & François G. J. A. Nissen & Peter C. Schotman & Christian C. P. Wolff, 1997. "The Dynamics of Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility Reconsidered," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 1(1), pages 105-130.
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    1. Eckhard Platen & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "A Benchmark Approach to Filtering in Finance," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 79-105, March.
    2. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models (An Approximation Approach)," Research Paper Series 65, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Jiongmin Yong (ed.), Recent Developments In Mathematical Finance, chapter 12, pages 139-150, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "The Volatility of the Instantaneous Spot Interest Rate Implied by Arbitrage Pricing - A Dynamic Bayesian Approach," Finance 0409002, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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