IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usi/wpaper/905.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climateflation and monetary policy in an environmental OLG growth model

Author

Listed:
  • Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández
  • Germana Giombini
  • Edgar J. Sánchez-Carrera

Abstract

Recent empirical evidence is challenging the conventional paradigm in macroeconomics, which assumes money is neutral in the long run. On the other hand, central banks are gradually acknowledging that climate change can potentially impact price stability, and the term climateflation has entered the vocabulary of policymakers. This paper contributes to current developments between these two major themes. We present an Overlapping Generations (OLG) model to study the interplay between conventional monetary policy and the environment in a context where the so-called “independence hypothesis” does not hold. Individuals are assumed to derive utility from consumption and environmental quality. Firms operate in a competitive market, but output is weighted by a damage function reflecting a negative externality from ecological degradation. We innovate by linking the environment to inflation through inflationary expectations in a modified Phillips curve. Central banks set the nominal interest rate using a generalised Taylor rule. They affect wealth composition via the individual’s intertemporal optimisation problem. Numerical experiments allow us to assess the robustness of the trade-off between environmental quality and economic activity when (i) expectations are more responsive to climateflation, (ii) the monetary authority is more inflation-averse, (iii) the central bank increases the inflation target, and (iv) fiscal policy is less stringent.

Suggested Citation

  • Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Germana Giombini & Edgar J. Sánchez-Carrera, 2023. "Climateflation and monetary policy in an environmental OLG growth model," Department of Economics University of Siena 905, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:905
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.deps.unisi.it/quaderni/905.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Correani, Luca & Di Dio, Fabio, 2018. "Environmental policy and endogenous market structure," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 186-215.
    2. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    4. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 315-343, October.
    5. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2011. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
    6. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2024. "How robust is the natalist bias of pollution control?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 337(3), pages 1111-1133, June.
    7. Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2023. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 18-36.
    8. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Diluiso, Francesca, 2019. "International transmission of the business cycle and environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Dirk Schoenmaker, 2021. "Greening monetary policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 581-592, April.
    10. de la Croix, David & Gosseries, Axel, 2012. "The natalist bias of pollution control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 271-287.
    11. Antoci, Angelo & Sodini, Mauro, 2009. "Indeterminacy, bifurcations and chaos in an overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1439-1450.
    12. John, A & Pecchenino, R, 1994. "An Overlapping Generations Model of Growth and the Environment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1393-1410, November.
    13. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2018. "Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 219-234.
    14. Hyman Minsky, 1993. "On the non-neutrality of money," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Spr), pages 77-82.
    15. Guanliang Hu & Guoxuan Ma & Wei Qiao & Neil Wallace, 2023. "“Conventional” Monetary Policy In Olg Models: Revisiting The Asset‐Substitution Channel," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 875-892, August.
    16. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    17. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    18. William Brock & M. Taylor, 2010. "The Green Solow model," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-153, June.
    19. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    20. Falilou Fall & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2015. "Macroeconomic uncertainties, prudent debt targets and fiscal rules," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1230, OECD Publishing.
    21. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
    22. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    23. Sordi, Serena & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2023. "The green-MKS system: A baseline environmental macro-dynamic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1056-1085.
    24. Coenen, Günter & Karadi, Peter & Schmidt, Sebastian & Warne, Anders, 2018. "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB’s micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector," Working Paper Series 2200, European Central Bank.
    25. George Economides & Anastasio Xepapadeas, 2019. "The effects of climate change on a small open economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7582, CESifo.
    26. George Economides & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2018. "Monetary policy under climate change," Working Papers 247, Bank of Greece.
    27. Miles Parker, 2018. "The Impact of Disasters on Inflation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, April.
    28. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    29. Chen, Chuanqi & Pan, Dongyang & Huang, Zhigang & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2021. "Engaging central banks in climate change? The mix of monetary and climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    30. Bertrand Crettez & Philippe Michel & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Taxes, and Public Debt in an Intertemporal Equilibrium," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 4(3), pages 299-316, July.
    31. Ryoji Hiraguchi, 2014. "Optimal Monetary Policy in OLG Models with Long-Lived Agents: A Note," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(1), pages 164-172, February.
    32. Falck, E. & Hoffmann, M. & Hürtgen, P., 2021. "Disagreement about inflation expectations and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 15-31.
    33. Andrea Caravaggio & Mauro Sodini, 2022. "Local environmental quality and heterogeneity in an OLG agent-based model with spatial externalities," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 287-317, January.
    34. Robert J. Gordon, 1977. "Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 253-279.
    35. Daniele Girardi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2020. "Reverse hysteresis? Persistent effects of autonomous demand expansions," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(4), pages 835-869.
    36. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. von Thadden, Leopold, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in an OLG model with non-superneutral money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 147-166.
    38. Adjemian, Stéphane & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy and the transmission of oil-supply shocks to the euro area under rational expectations," Working Paper Series 962, European Central Bank.
    39. Faccia, Donata & Parker, Miles & Stracca, Livio, 2021. "Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability," Working Paper Series 2626, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    2. Francesca Diluiso & Barbara Annicchiarico & Matthias Kalkuhl & Jan C. Minx, 2020. "Climate Actions and Stranded Assets: The Role of Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8486, CESifo.
    3. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Diluiso, Francesca, 2024. "Climate actions, market beliefs, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 176-208.
    4. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    6. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    7. Chan, Ying Tung & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy responses to carbon and green bubbles:A two-sector DSGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    9. Dufrénot, Gilles & Rhouzlane, Meryem & Vaccaro-Grange, Etienne, 2022. "Potential growth and natural yield curve in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Eric Jondeau & Gregory Levieuge & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel, 2022. "Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Transition Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-45, Swiss Finance Institute.
    12. Alessandro Ferrari & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2023. "Toward a Green Economy: The Role of the Central Bank’s Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(5), pages 287-340, December.
    13. Liu, Zhonglu & He, Shuguang & Men, Wenjiao & Sun, Haibo, 2024. "Impact of climate risk on financial stability: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Are macroeconomic policies better in curbing air pollution than environmental policies? A DSGE approach with carbon-dependent fiscal and monetary policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Batten, Sandra & Millard, Stephen, 2024. "Energy and climate policy in a DSGE model of the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 1064, Bank of England.
    16. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from France," CESifo Working Paper Series 10552, CESifo.
    17. Anelí Bongers, 2020. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and the Energy Mix: A Structural Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    19. Shapiro Finkelstein, Alan & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of a Carbon Tax to Meet the U.S. Paris Agreement Target: The Role of Firm Creation and Technology Adoption," FEEM Working Papers 311095, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    20. George, Ammu & Huang, Jingong & Xie, Taojun, 2022. "Assessing the dual mandates of sustainability-linked monetary policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Green transition; OLG.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabrizio Becatti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desieit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.