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Bayesian consistent belief selection

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  • Chambers, Christopher P.
  • Hayashi, Takashi

Abstract

A subjective expected utility agent is given information about the state of the world in the form of a set of possible priors. She is assumed to form her beliefs given this information. A set of priors may be updated according to Bayes' rule, prior-by-prior, upon learning that some state of the world has not obtained. In a model in which information is completely summarized by this set of priors, we show that there exists no decision maker who obeys Bayes' rule, conditions her prior only on the available information (by selecting a belief in the announced set), and who updates the information prior-by-prior using Bayes' rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Chambers, Christopher P. & Hayashi, Takashi, 2010. "Bayesian consistent belief selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 432-439, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:145:y:2010:i:1:p:432-439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher P. Chambers & Yusufcan Masatlioglu & Collin Raymond, 2023. "Coherent Distorted Beliefs," Papers 2310.09879, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    2. Park, Hyoeun & Tayawa, Jason Paulo, 2024. "Anchored belief updating from recommendations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Ahn, David S. & Echenique, Federico & Saito, Kota, 2018. "On path independent stochastic choice," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), January.

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