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The ex-ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty

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    (Department of Economics, New York University)

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the problem of aggregating preference orderings under subjective uncertainty. Individual preferences, or opinions, agree on the ranking of risky prospects, but are quite general because we do not specify the perception of ambiguity or the attitude towards it. A convexity axiom for the ex-ante preference characterizes a (collective) decision rule that can be interpreted as a compromise between the utilitarian and the Rawlsian criteria. The former is characterized by the independence axiom as in Harsanyi (1955). Existing results are special cases of our representation theorems, which also allow us to interpret Segal's (1987) two-stage approach to ambiguity as the ex-ante aggregation of (Bayesian) future selves' opinions.

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  • ,, 2012. "The ex-ante aggregation of opinions under uncertainty," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:896
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Bardier & Bach Dong-Xuan & Van-Quy Nguyen, 2024. "Hoping for the best while preparing for the worst in the face of uncertainty: a new type of incomplete preferences," Papers 2406.11166, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    2. Eric Danan & Thibault Gajdos & Brian Hill & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2016. "Robust Social Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2407-2425, September.
    3. Hill, Brian, 2012. "Unanimity and the aggregation of multiple prior opinions," HEC Research Papers Series 959, HEC Paris.
    4. Florian Brandl, 2020. "Belief-Averaged Relative Utilitarianism," Papers 2005.03693, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    5. Fleurbaey, Marc & Zuber, Stéphane, 2017. "Fair management of social risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 666-706.
    6. Nascimento, Leandro, 2011. "Zhou’s aggregation theorems with multiple welfare weights," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4-5), pages 654-658.
    7. Faro, José Heleno & Lefort, Jean-Philippe, 2019. "Dynamic objective and subjective rationality," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), January.
    8. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01415412 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bach Dong-Xuan, 2024. "Aggregation of misspecified experts," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(3), pages 923-943, November.
    10. Thibault Gajdos & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2013. "Decisions with conflicting and imprecise information," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(2), pages 427-452, July.
    11. Berens, Stefan & Chochua, Lasha, 2017. "The impartial observer under uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 576, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    12. Xiangyu Qu, 2017. "Separate aggregation of beliefs and values under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 503-519, February.
    13. Amarante, Massimiliano & Ghossoub, Mario, 2021. "Aggregation of opinions and risk measures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    14. Stanca, Lorenzo, 2021. "Smooth aggregation of Bayesian experts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Eric Danan, 2021. "Partial utilitarianism," Working Papers hal-03327900, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregation of preferences; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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