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A DSGE Model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange Policies in Wich Policymakers Exploit the Risk Premium for Stabilization Purposes

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  • Guillermo Escudé

    (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

This paper builds a DSGE model for a SOE in which the central bank systematically intervenes both the domestic currency bond and the FX markets using two policy rules: a Taylor-type rule and a second rule in which the operational target is the rate of nominal currency depreciation. For this, the instruments used by the central bank (bonds and international reserves) must be included in the model, as well as the institutional arrangements that determine the total amount of resources the central bank can use. The "corner" regimes in which only one of the policy rules is used are particular cases of the model. The model is calibrated and implemented in Dynare for 1) simple policy rules, 2) optimal simple policy rules, and 3) optimal policy under commitment. Numerical losses are obtained for ad-hoc loss functions for different sets of central bank preferences (styles). The results show that the losses are systematically lower when both policy rules are used simultaneously, and much lower for the usual preferences (in which only inflation and/or output stabilization matter). It is shown that this result is basically due to the central bank´s enhanced ability, when it uses the two policy rules, to influence capital flows through the effects of its actions on the endogenous risk premium in the (risk-adjusted) interest parity equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Escudé, 2013. "A DSGE Model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange Policies in Wich Policymakers Exploit the Risk Premium for Stabilization Purposes," BCRA Working Paper Series 201361, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201361
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    Cited by:

    1. Shulgin, A., 2017. "Two-Dimensional Monetary Policy Shocks in DSGE-Model Estimated for Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 75-115.
    2. Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2022. "Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve-Issuing Economies," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 4(3), pages 60-98, April.
    3. Escudé, Guillermo J., 2014. "The possible trinity: Optimal interest rate, exchange rate, and taxes on capital flows in a DSGE model for a small open economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-58.
    4. Tai‐kuang Ho & Ya‐chi Lin & Kuo‐chun Yeh, 2021. "The case for starting a new exchange rate after debt settlement: Reexamining alternatives to Argentina’s exchange rate policy in 2001–2002," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 641-662, August.
    5. Mădălin Viziniuc, 2017. "Potential Gains from Cooperation Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: The Case of an Emerging Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(5), pages 420-452, September.
    6. Boniface Pepino Yemba, 2017. "Tax and monetary policy rules in a small open economy with disaggregated government purchases," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 144-182.
    7. Andrei G. Shulgin, 2018. "Monetary Regime Choice and Optimal Credit Rationing at the Official Rate: The Case of Russia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 631-668, October.
    8. Nikolay P. Pilnik & Malika F. Shaikhutdinova, 2017. "Modeling of the Balance of Payments State in Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 84-101, October.
    9. Shulgin, Andrei, 2014. "How much monetary policy rules do we need to estimate DSGE model for Russia?," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 36(4), pages 3-31.
    10. Shulgin, A., 2015. "Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 64-98.
    11. Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; exchange rate policy; optimal policy; Small Open Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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