IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v35y2011i11p2945-2955.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crash risk of the euro in the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Hui, Cho-Hoi
  • Chung, Tsz-Kin

Abstract

The economic-political instability of a country, which is tied to its credit risk, often leads to sharp depreciation and heightened volatility in its currency. This paper shows that not only the creditworthiness of the euro-area countries with weaker fiscal positions but also that of the member countries with more sound fiscal positions are important determinants of the deep out-of-the-money euro put option prices, which embedded information on the euro crash risk during the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2010. We also find evidence of information flow from the sovereign credit default swap market to the currency option market during the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui, Cho-Hoi & Chung, Tsz-Kin, 2011. "Crash risk of the euro in the sovereign debt crisis of 2009-2010," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2945-2955, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:2945-2955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611001257
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jun Liu, 2005. "An Equilibrium Model of Rare-Event Premia and Its Implication for Option Smirks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 131-164.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Gabaix, Xavier & Verdelhan, Adrien & Rancière, Romain & Farhi, Emmanuel & Fraiberger, Samuel P., 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    6. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    8. Cremers, Martijn & Driessen, Joost & Maenhout, Pascal & Weinbaum, David, 2008. "Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2706-2715, December.
    9. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    10. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Theory and evidence on the dynamic interactions between sovereign credit default swaps and currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2383-2403, August.
    11. Cao, Charles & Yu, Fan & Zhong, Zhaodong, 2010. "The information content of option-implied volatility for credit default swap valuation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-343, August.
    12. Acharya, Viral V. & Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Insider trading in credit derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 110-141, April.
    13. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cho-Hoi Hui & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2010. "The Risk of Sudden Depreciation of the Euro in the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2009-2010," Working Papers 252010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Cho-Hoi Hui & Tom Fong, 2011. "Information Flow between Sovereign CDS and Dollar-Yen Currency Option Markets in the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2009-2011," Working Papers 402011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Fong, Tom Pak-Wing, 2015. "Price cointegration between sovereign CDS and currency option markets in the financial crises of 2007–2013," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 174-190.
    4. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    5. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Chau, Po-Hon, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 109-128.
    6. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Po-Hon Chau, 2016. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and US Dollar-denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 072016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Bekkour, Lamia & Jin, Xisong & Lehnert, Thorsten & Rasmouki, Fanou & Wolff, Christian, 2015. "Euro at risk: The impact of member countries' credit risk on the stability of the common currency," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 67-83.
    8. Cho-Hoi Hui & Edward Tan, 2016. "Dynamic interactions between government bonds and exchange rate expectations in currency options," Working Papers 182016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Davide E Avino & Enrique Salvador, 2024. "Contingent Claims and Hedging of Credit Risk with Equity Options," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 310-348.
    10. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    11. Ivelina Pavlova & Maria E. de Boyrie, 2015. "Carry Trades and Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Asia‐Pacific Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(11), pages 1067-1087, November.
    12. Han, Bing & Zhou, Yi, 2015. "Understanding the term structure of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-35.
    13. Pedro Pires & João Pedro Pereira & Luís Filipe Martins, 2015. "The Empirical Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: a Quantile Regression Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 556-589, June.
    14. Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
    15. Manuel Ammann & Mathis Mörke, 2019. "Credit Variance Risk Premiums," Working Papers on Finance 1908, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    16. Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S. & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Trading strategies with implied forward credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 361-375.
    17. Cao, Charles & Yu, Fan & Zhong, Zhaodong, 2010. "The information content of option-implied volatility for credit default swap valuation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-343, August.
    18. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2017. "Understanding transactions prices in the credit default swaps market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.
    19. Wang, Hao & Zhou, Hao & Zhou, Yi, 2013. "Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3733-3746.
    20. Cathy Chen & Wolfgang Härdle, 2015. "Common factors in credit defaults swap markets," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 845-863, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:2945-2955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.