IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2019-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade liberalization and South African manufacturing: Looking back with data

Author

Listed:
  • Ciaran Driver

Abstract

This paper provides a retrospective assessment of the effects of trade policies on South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, examining the differences and commonalities in the views of economists in favour of and against an acceleration of trade liberalization. Data from the Bureau of Economic Research are used to test a number of effects on manufacturing industry that were envisaged to flow from trade policy reforms, including effects on mark-ups, productivity, exports, employment, and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciaran Driver, 2019. "Trade liberalization and South African manufacturing: Looking back with data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp-2019-30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silvia Lui & James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2011. "Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(2), pages 327-348, April.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: an Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728.
    3. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    4. Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, February.
    5. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "Understanding South Africa's economic puzzles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 769-797, October.
    6. Ciaran Driver & Nigel Meade, 2019. "Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 236-255, April.
    7. Philippe Aghion & Matias Braun & Johannes Fedderke, 2008. "Competition and productivity growth in South Africa," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 741-768, October.
    8. Jonathan Michie & Vishnu Padayachee, 2019. "South African business in the transition to democracy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-10, January.
    9. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
    10. Alan Gelb & Christian Meyer & Vijaya Ramachandran, 2013. "Does Poor Mean Cheap? A Comparative Look at Africa's Industrial Labor Costs," Working Papers 325, Center for Global Development.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Johannes W. Fedderke, 2008. "Introduction A symposium on fostering growth in South Africa," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 583-584, October.
    12. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm‐Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, July.
    13. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm‐Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, July.
    14. Stan du Plessis & Nico Katzke & Evan Gilbert & Chris Hart, 2015. "Mark-ups and competition: a comparison of the profitability of listed South African industrial companies," Working Papers 02/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pamela Mondliwa & Sumayya Goga & Simon Roberts, 2021. "Competition, Productive Capabilities and Structural Transformation in South Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(2), pages 253-274, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," AQR Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
    2. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
    4. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
    5. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
    6. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    7. Driver, Ciaran & Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair, 2019. "Financial constraints on investment: Effects of firm size and the financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 441-457.
    8. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
    9. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    10. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents’ expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," AQR Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Mar 2015.
    11. Troy D. Matheson & James Mitchell & Brian Silverstone, 2010. "Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 313-330.
    12. David Bywaters & Gareth Thomas, 2008. "Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 125-137, June.
    13. François Hild, 2006. "Un nouvel indicateur synthétique prenant en compte la dynamique des réponses individuelles à l'enquête Industrie," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 395(1), pages 65-89.
    14. Silvia Lui & James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2011. "Qualitative business surveys: signal or noise?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(2), pages 327-348, April.
    15. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
    16. Philippe Aghion & Johannes Fedderke & Peter Howitt & Nicola Viegi, 2013. "Testing creative destruction in an opening economy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 419-450, July.
    17. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2006. "A Bayesian Indicator of Manufacturing Output from Qualitative Business Panel Survey Data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 261, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    18. Olivier Biau & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Nicolas Ferrari, 2006. "Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de conjoncture et prévision de la production manufacturière," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 395(1), pages 91-116.
    19. Guizzardi, Andrea & Stacchini, Annalisa, 2015. "Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 213-223.
    20. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2013. "Efficient Aggregation Of Panel Qualitative Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 580-603, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy; Manufacturing; Trade liberalization; Exports; Exchange rate; Data;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.